Mitigating Cognitive and Behavioural Biases During Pandemics Responses

Ekenberg, Love; Mihai, Adriana; Fasth, Tobias; Komendantova, Nadejda; Danielson, Mats; Al‐Salaymeh, Ahmed

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-77208-6_1

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…If the models contained only one criterion, that was invariably the number of fatalities. But as we argue in Ekenberg et al (1), there is much more to a policy decision situation, and an extended analysis is called for covering several criteria and, in many cases, sub-criteria. As more information becomes available as time goes by, the requirement increases to be able to incorporate this into the model and its evaluations.…”

Section: An Integrated Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The article thus presents the conceptual framework and formalisation of policy-making in conditions of uncertainty during the pandemic, summarising our findings from an EU-supported project for policy analyses (2), and then showcases how it has been extended since, by analysing Sweden's decision-making on future mitigation strategies depending on vaccination efficiency during the third wave of the pandemic. Our conceptual framework for decision analysis under uncertainty was previously applied in three countries: Botswana (3), Romania (1) and Jordan (4,5), where data collection and stakeholder consultation processes provided the input for the modelling and evaluation. While that framework was a best effort during the peak of the pandemic, the analysis model has now been considerably extended by taking different scenario outcomes and their probabilities into account.…”

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confidence: 99%

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A risk-based decision framework for policy analysis of societal pandemic effects

Danielson

Ekenberg

Komendantova

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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IntroductionIn this article, we summarize our findings from an EU-supported project for policy analyses applied to pandemics such as Covid-19 (with the potential to be applied as well to other, similar hazards) while considering various mitigation levels and consequence sets under several criteria.MethodsIt is based on our former development for handling imprecise information in risk trees and multi-criteria hierarchies using intervals and qualitative estimates. We shortly present the theoretical background and demonstrate how it can be used for systematic policy analyses. In our model, we use decision trees and multi-criteria hierarchies extended by belief distributions for weights, probabilities and values as well as combination rules to aggregate the background information in an extended expected value model, taking into criteria weights as well as probabilities and outcome values. We used the computer-supported tool DecideIT for the aggregate decision analysis under uncertainty.ResultsThe framework has been applied in three countries: Botswana, Romania and Jordan, and extended for scenario-building during the third wave of the pandemic in Sweden, proving its feasibility in real-time policy-making for pandemic mitigation measures.DiscussionThis work resulted in a more fine-grained model for policy decision that is much more aligned to the societal needs in the future, either if the Covid-19 pandemic prevails or for the next pandemic or other society-wide hazardous emergencies.

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Section: An Integrated Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

A risk-based decision framework for policy analysis of societal pandemic effects

Danielson

Ekenberg

Komendantova

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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“…The studies on 'cognitive biases' in securities market decision making often points towards incidence of adopted or presumed heuristics as shaping outcomes. Such outcomes seem appropriate yet they are based on unbaked information or mindsets (Ekenberg,Fasth, 2021) that are susceptible to framing, narrative assignment, overrepresentation, anchoring or even overconfidence. The biases (Dietrich, 2010) essentially derive from the differences in assumptions and actual reality vis a vis the securities market in question.…”

Section: Review Of Literature Andtheoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Researcher Title Observations (Ekenberg,Fasth, 2021) Mitigating cognitive and behavioural biases during pandemic responses…”

Section: Studies Reviewed and Changes Noticedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Behavioural Biases in Investor’s Stock Market Participation in Post Pandemic Phase: A Literature Review Approach

Sood¹,

Sharma²

2022

ECS Trans.

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the literature on the role of biases in shaping the decision-based anomalies in investor's stock market participation. The paper reviews the literature across a wider spectrum of biases involving heuristic perspective, prospect theory, herding, market, overconfidence, anchoring, and other representative aspects. The study embeds the sources of biases as critical to the understanding of consequences for investment decision making and respective stock market participation. The study evaluates the literature on the investor's self-dispositions, optimism, and other irrational mistakes as possessing consequences for investment decision making. The study presents the literature in post COVID pandemic times to assess the possible implication of financial uncertainty as shaping the investor's stock market participation. The study especially figures out the implications of faltering financial literacy and contingent financial inconsistency as shaping biases and resultant participation. The paper reviewed the existing literature especially in midst of COVID-19 pandemic and publications on the changes in financial behaviour. The PhD work will contribute towards understanding of changes in the biases in financial decision making and investor’s stock market participation in post COVID times.

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“…Nevertheless, despite broad potential benefits of MCDA in preparedness for infectious diseases (Brookes et al, 2015) and decision‐making public healthcare at large (Marsh et al, 2016), it has found limited application in pandemic preparedness, see for example, (Aenishaenslin et al, 2013; De Nardo et al, 2020; Ekenberg et al, 2021a; Ekenberg et al,2021b; Neogi, 2021)).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of pharmaceutical intervention strategies against pandemics in Sweden: A scenario‐driven multiple criteria decision analysis study

Talantsev

Fasth

Wenner

et al. 2022

Multi Criteria Decision Anal

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To enhance preparedness for diverse pandemic situations we aim to predict the performance of various pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We gathered domain experts and ran a series of decision conferences where a scenario‐based multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was interactively defined and implemented. Assuming an influenza pandemic, a micro simulation model was used to estimate societal health impact, a health‐economic model was used to estimate economic losses, and expert preferences were elicited to define trade‐offs between multiple criteria and synthesize various estimates. Sensitivity analysis to address various forms of uncertainty was also conducted. Nine intervention strategies, including the baseline “no interventions” strategy, were evaluated and ranked under five pandemic scenarios for Sweden's population. We conclude that a scenario‐based MCDA approach relying on multiple models for assessment of consequences is instrumental in defining robust interventions and support decision‐making at the pre‐pandemic and pandemic situations.

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Mitigating Cognitive and Behavioural Biases During Pandemics Responses

Cited by 4 publications

References 9 publications

A risk-based decision framework for policy analysis of societal pandemic effects

A risk-based decision framework for policy analysis of societal pandemic effects

Behavioural Biases in Investor’s Stock Market Participation in Post Pandemic Phase: A Literature Review Approach

Evaluation of pharmaceutical intervention strategies against pandemics in Sweden: A scenario‐driven multiple criteria decision analysis study

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