Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis of Critical Information Systems

Buckshaw, Donald L.; Parnell, Gregory S.; Unkenholz, Willard L.; Parks, Donald L.; Wallner, J.; Saydjari, O. Sami

doi:10.5711/morj.10.2.19

Cited by 61 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…In the past twenty years of research on military portfolio selection, the most common analysis techniques include multiple objective analysis [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,12], multiple criteria analysis [10], value analysis [4,5,6,7,8,9], optimization [6,7,8,9,10,11], cost-efficiency analysis [9,10] and expert judgments [1,5,9], etc. Generally, the objective of WSPS is to select the optimal weapon portfolio form all the candidate weapon systems with regard to its basic capabilities, integrated operational capabilities and technical effects under the available capital and resources conditions [9]. Therefore, just like some other decision-making problem in real-world, including supplier selection [13], resource allocation [13], manufacturing technology selection [14] and project selection [15], WSPS requires a multi-objective decision analysis (MODA).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The military application of Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) often uses value instead of utility as the measure of the weapon system or project portfolio [4,5,6,7,8,9]; Especially in WSPS problem, the definition of value is determined by the decision objectives and the measured criteria. Additionally, these value assessments, especially in weapon system portfolio selection (WSPS), are more challenging, because of, 1) safety reasons, as it is often difficult to test military systems (e.g., weapon of mass destruction) and, therefore, to ascertain their value in realistic operational conditions [2,3], 2) the possible interactions and independencies among the weapon system, which influence the final value assessment of the portfolio and 3) the uncertainty of the sample datasets for assessment and the target integrated portfolio value.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparisons of Hybrid Multi-Objective Programming Algorithms with Grey Target and PCA for Weapon System Portfolio Selection

Dou¹,

Zhang²,

Jiang³

et al. 2014

Appl. Math. Inf. Sci.

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Weapon Systems Portfolio Selection (WSPS) can be considered as a multi-objective decision analysis (MODA) problem. Aiming at its challenging features because of, 1) interactions and independencies among weapon systems, 2) the uncertainty of the sample data set for assessment, and 3) the missing target value of the assessment criteria, the WSPS problem is solved form four perspectives: portfolio without the independencies or target value, portfolio with the independencies but without target value, portfolio with the independencies and target value, portfolio in a incomplete sample data with the independencies and with target value. The synergy concept is introduced to describe the independencies among systems and Grey Target (GT) and principal component analysis (PCA) method are employed in this study to deal with the missing target value and incomplete sample data set. Three hybrid multiobjective programming algorithms are proposed as GT-MOP1, GT-MOP2 and PCA-MOP2 and non-dominated portfolios are generated as by sorting algorithm as a set of Pareto-optimal solutions. Finally, numerical experiments are given under four scenarios to illustrate the feasibilities and advantages of the three hybrid algorithms.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparisons of Hybrid Multi-Objective Programming Algorithms with Grey Target and PCA for Weapon System Portfolio Selection

Dou¹,

Zhang²,

Jiang³

et al. 2014

Appl. Math. Inf. Sci.

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“…Decision-makers are then able to compare different options on the basis of the absolute as-is vs. residual risks. This is in contrast with multicriteria decision analysis variants such as Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis [Buckshaw et al, 2005] that assesses and compares alternatives on the basis of an aggregated utility or value obtained as a weighted sum of the system and attacker criteria quantified in terms of utility or value.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative risk‐based analysis for military counterterrorism systems

Kujawski¹,

Miller²

2007

Systems Engineering

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This paper presents a realistic and practical approach to quantitatively assess the risk-reduction capabilities of military counterterrorism systems in terms of damage cost and casualty figures. The comparison of alternatives is thereby based on absolute quantities rather than an aggregated utility or value provided by multicriteria decision analysis methods. The key elements of the approach are (1) the use of decision-attack event trees for modeling and analyzing scenarios, (2) a portfolio model approach for analyzing multiple threats, and (3) the quantitative probabilistic risk assessment matrix for communicating the results. Decision-attack event trees are especially appropriate for modeling and analyzing terrorist attacks where the sequence of events and outcomes are time-sensitive. The actions of the attackers and the defenders are modeled as decisions and the outcomes are modeled as probabilistic events. The quantitative probabilistic risk assessment matrix provides information about the range of the possible outcomes while retaining the simplicity of the classic safety risk assessment matrix based on Mil-Std-882D. It therefore provides a simple and reliable tool for comparing alternatives on the basis of risk including confidence levels rather than single point estimates. This additional valuable information requires minimal additional effort. The proposed approach is illustrated using a simplified but realistic model of a destroyer operating in inland restricted waters. The complex problem of choosing a robust counterterrorism protection system against multiple terrorist threats is analyzed by introducing a surrogate multi-threat portfolio. The associated risk profile provides a practical approach for assessing the robustness of different counterterrorism systems against plausible terrorist threats. The paper Regular Paper *This is a US Government work, and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America. † Author to whom all correspondence should be addressed (e-mail: ekujawsk@nps.edu).Systems Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 4, 2007© 2007 273 documents the analysis for a hypothetical case of three potential threats.

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“…Other portfolios in the literature involve forces, land use, infrastructure (e.g. [100]), system elements, arms transfers [101], and capabilities [102] [103]. Military portfolios may be de…ned in terms of assets to be procured or deployed, and portfolio elements may be distinguished in terms of location, asset type, and function.…”

Section: Military Planning and Procurementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multicriteria Portfolio Decision Analysis for Project Selection

Morton

Keisler

Salo

2016

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

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Multicriteria Portfolio Analysis spans several methods which typically employ build on MCDA to guide the selection of a subset (i.e., portfolio) of available objects, with the aim of maximising the performance of the resulting portfolio with regard to multiple criteria, subject to the requirement that the selected portfolio does not consume of resources consumed by the portfolio does not exceed the availability of resources and, moreover, satis…es other relevant constraints as well. In this chapter, we present a formal model of this selection problem and describe how this model can present both challenges (e.g. portfolio value may, due to the interactions of elements, depend on project-level decisions in complex and non-additive ways) and opportunities (e.g. triage rules can be used to focus elicitation on projects which are critical) for value assessment. We also survey the application of Portfolio Decision Analysis in several domains, such as allocation of R&D expenditure, military procurement, prioritisation of healthcare projects, and environment and energy planning, and conclude by outlining possible future research directions.

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Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis of Critical Information Systems

Cited by 61 publications

References 4 publications

Comparisons of Hybrid Multi-Objective Programming Algorithms with Grey Target and PCA for Weapon System Portfolio Selection

Comparisons of Hybrid Multi-Objective Programming Algorithms with Grey Target and PCA for Weapon System Portfolio Selection

Quantitative risk‐based analysis for military counterterrorism systems

Multicriteria Portfolio Decision Analysis for Project Selection

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