Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004

Abstract

The war in Iraq, so the widely accepted view, hurt the reelection of George W. Bush. We contend, to the contrary, that the war helped him get reelected. First, we show that his victory fits the dominant pattern of wartime elections in American history. Second, we find that Bush's approval ratings benefited from a complex rally where the Iraq war prolonged rather than diminished the 9/11 effect; most Americans affirmed rather than disputed a link between the war in Iraq and the war on terror. Third, while Bush's approval proves sensitive to U.S. casualties in the Iraq war, any damage to his standing prior to the election was mitigated by sufficient popular support for that war. And finally, on Election Day, Bush was able to garner the vote of two critical blocks with favorable feelings about the Iraq war, be it the decision to invade or the prospect of success.

An agenda-setting model of electoral competition

“…(p. 784). While indeed Democratic activists and opinion-makers pressured in favor of Kerry campaigning mainly about 'Iraq' in response to Bush's emphasis on 'terrorism', polls show that most people agreed with the statement that the Iraq war was part of the war on terrorism (Norpoth and Sidman 2007 as observed by).…”

Policy popularity: The Arizona immigration law

“…The "rally 'round the flag" effect, sparked by a dramatic international events, invariably boosts approval, if only temporarily (Edwards and Swenson 1997;Kernell 1978;Ladd 2007;Lai and Reiter 2005;Kam and Ramos 2008;Norpoth and Sidman 2007;Wood 2009). While international events rarely impinge on state governors, the surge-and-decline pattern of a rally effect may apply to a governor acting in response to a crisis with an international dimension.…”

Guns 'N jobs: The FDR legacy

“…Yet no matter how big the initial surge may be, its staying power is not expected to be strong enough to vanquish concerns over other matters like the economy for long, or to secure victory in the next election. One rally that was powerful long enough to diminish the impact of the economy on presidential approval as well the next presidential election was the one sparked by the 9/11 attacks (Norpoth and Sidman, 2007;Lewis-Beck et al, 2008). Another occurred in British politics as a result of the Falklands War of 1982.…”