Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies

Abstract

Global climate change is an atmospheric commons problem where the basic actors are the states. In democratic nations national policy initiatives depend on the opinion of the electorate. Unless there is a proper popular perception of climate change, it will be difficult to undertake appropriate and timely measures. Previous experimental studies of people's understanding of climate change and of other renewable resource problems have revealed that people misperceive the basic dynamics and that they favour decisions that are systematically biased in the direction of over-utilisation. In the present laboratory experiment, with 251 students, the focus is on understanding why people misperceive and how misperceptions could be avoided. Using a simulator, the subjects are asked to control total global emissions of CO 2 to reach a given target for the atmospheric CO 2 -concentration. Compared to a previous study we find that full information about a simplified system leads to improved performance, particularly among students with a background in mathematics. Subjects perform better in an analogous, however more easily visualisable system, indicating that they have difficulties forming appropriate mental models of the more abstract atmospheric problem. Two information treatments, thought to improve mental models, turn out to have insignificant effects. Finally, information feedback about the development of the CO 2 -concentration helps. According to our findings, current information from the IPCC and the standard media coverage is not effective in helping people to choose policies that are consistent with their own preferences.

Human perceptions in climate change

“…As already mentioned, the problem of human understanding and control of dynamic systems, such as the climate change, is widely known (Sweeney and Sterman 2000;Brehmer 1989Brehmer , 1992Diehl and Sterman 1995;Moxnes and Saysel 2004;Paich and Sterman 1993;Sterman 1989;Sterman and Sweeney 2002). But recently, evidence for an even more disturbing problem has been found: that people have trouble understanding even simple dynamic tasks consisting of one stock, one inflow and one outflow (Cronin and Gonzalez 2007;Cronin, et al in press).…”

“…In this section we propose a simple climate model that we adapted from DICE-92 and ideas from Moxnes and Saysel (2004). The model enables us to control all the basic elements of the climate problem yet the model remains simple to understand and can be used in a lab experiment.…”

“…the bathtub metaphor (Sterman 2000;Moxnes and Saysel 2004 (Houghton, et al 2001;Nebojs¢a, Ogunlade, et al 2000). The scenarios are: one optimistic and one pessimistic, for the future emissions of CO2 emissions into Atmosphere (See Figure 2 for a representation of both Emission Scenarios).…”

“…In order to do so, CO 2 and other GHG emissions must be made lower than the removal rates of GHGs from the atmosphere, which means lowering of emissions by more than half of the current emission values (Sterman and Sweeney 2002). Although many people believe that global warming is real (Climate Change Fact Sheet 2006) many think that we can wait and watch rather than act immediately (Sweeney and Sterman 2000;Moxnes and Saysel 2004;Sterman and Sweeney 2002). Many think that the effects of global warming would happen slowly and that interventions to mitigate the warming could also be made at a slow pace.…”

“…The problem of human understanding and control of dynamic systems, such as the climate change, is widely known (Sweeney and Sterman 2000;Brehmer 1989Brehmer , 1992Diehl and Sterman 1995;Moxnes and Saysel 2004;Paich and Sterman 1993;Sterman 1989;Sterman and Sweeney 2002) but recently, even a more disturbing problem has been uncovered: that people have trouble understanding even a simple dynamic task consisting of one stock, one inflow and one outflow (Cronin and Gonzalez 2007;Cronin, Gonzalez, and Sterman in press). For example, Moxnes (1998aMoxnes ( , 1998bMoxnes ( , 2000Moxnes ( , 2004 in experiments concerning renewable resources using simple dynamic systems has shown that humans have strong tendencies to over utilize and over invest resources.…”