MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments

Watanabe, Shingo; Hajima, Tomohiro; Sudo, Kengo; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Takemura, Toshihiko; Okajima, Hideki; Nozawa, Takashi; Kawase, Hiroaki; Abe, Manabu; Yokohata, Tokuta; Ise, T.; Sato, Hisashi; Kato, Etsushi; Takata, Kumiko; Emori, Seita; Kawamiya, Michio

doi:10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011

Cited by 1,138 publications

(641 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…For simulations, we use historical and RCP4.5 runs from 44 different GCMs from the CMIP5 archive [Taylor et al, 2012;Bi et al, 2013;Xin et al, 2013;Ji et al, 2014;von Salzen et al, 2013;Meehl et al, 2012;Hurrell et al, 2012;Scoccimarro et al, 2011;Voldoire et al, 2013;Rotstayn et al, 2010;Hazeleger et al, 2010;Li et al, 2013;Delworth et al, 2006;Donner et al, 2011;Schmidt et al, 2014;Smith et al, 2010;Collins et al, 2011;Jones et al, 2011;Volodin et al, 2010;Dufresne et al, 2013;Hourdin et al, 2013;Sakamoto et al, 2012;Watanabe et al, 2010Watanabe et al, , 2011Giorgetta et al, 2013;Yukimoto et al, 2012;Bentsen et al, 2013], and from the 100 realization single-model large ensemble of the MPI-ESM [Giorgetta et al, 2013]. The large ensemble uses the model version MPI-ESM1.1 in low resolution (LR) configuration, with resolution T63 and 47 vertical levels in the atmosphere and 1.5 ∘ resolution and 40 vertical levels in the ocean.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends

Suárez-Gutiérrez

Thorne

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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We explore the extent to which internal variability can reconcile discrepancies between observed and simulated warming in the upper tropical troposphere. We compare all extant radiosonde‐based estimates for the period 1958–2014 to simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multimodel ensemble and the 100 realization Max Planck Institute large ensemble. We consider annual mean temperatures and all available 30‐and 15‐year trends. Most observed trends fall within the ensemble spread for most of the record, and trends calculated over 15‐year periods show better agreement than 30‐year trends, with generally larger discrepancies for the older observational products. The simulated amplification of surface warming aloft in the troposphere is consistent with observations, and the linear correlation between surface and simultaneous tropospheric warming trends decreases with trend length. We conclude that trend differences between observations and simulations of tropical tropospheric temperatures are dominated by observational uncertainty and chaotic internal variability rather than by systematic errors in model performance.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends

Suárez-Gutiérrez

Thorne

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…We then summarized the number of generations projected for each month. For Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions, we calculated monthly mean temperatures from monthly minimum and maximum temperature modelled by three global climate models: MPI-electronic supplementary material-P [41], MIROC-electronic supplementary material [42] and CCSM4 (accessed on 28 September 2015 from http://ccsm.ucar.edu/ models/ccsm4.0/). All data for these projections were downloaded from the WorldClim database.…”

Section: (C) Estimation Of Temperature-dependent Generation Timementioning

confidence: 99%

Support for the evolutionary speed hypothesis from intraspecific population genetic data in the non-biting midgeChironomus riparius

et al. 2016

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The evolutionary speed hypothesis (ESH) proposes a causal mechanism for the latitudinal diversity gradient. The central idea of the ESH is that warmer temperatures lead to shorter generation times and increased mutation rates. On an absolute time scale, both should lead to an acceleration of selection and drift. Based on the ESH, we developed predictions regarding the distribution of intraspecific genetic diversity: populations of ectothermic species with more generations per year owing to warmer ambient temperatures should be more differentiated from each other, accumulate more mutations and show evidence for increased mutation rates compared with populations in colder regions. We used the multivoltine insect species Chironomus riparius to test these predictions with cytochrome oxidase I (COI) sequence data and found that populations from warmer regions are indeed significantly more differentiated and have significantly more derived haplotypes than populations from colder regions. We also found a significant correlation of the annual mean temperature with the population mutation parameter u that serves as a proxy for the per generation mutation rate under certain assumptions. This pattern could be corroborated with two nuclear loci. Overall, our results support the ESH and indicate that the thermal regime experienced may be crucially driving the evolution of ectotherms and may thus ultimately govern their speciation rate.

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“…This assumption may not hold true for proxy reconstructions, and a number of modifications to the standard technique have been made here to account for this complication. First, the control run segments were converted into ''pseudo-reconstructions'' by adding a reconstruction uncertainty, modeled as a random Normal time series for each sector/season with a mean of 0 and a [Gent et al, 2011] 501 5 3 CESM1-CAM5 [Hurrell et al, 2013] 235 3 1 CSIRO-Mk3-6 [Rotstayn et al, 2012] 500 5 5 FGOALS-g2 [Li et al, 2013] 700 3 3 HadGEM2-ES [Martin et al, 2011] 576 5 0 IPSL-CM5A-LR [Mignot and Bony, 2013] 1000 5 0 IPSL-CM5A-MR [Mignot and Bony, 2013] 300 3 2 MIROC-ESM [Watanabe et al, 2011] 630 3 3 MIROC5 [Watanabe et al, 2010] 670 5 0 NorESM1-M [Bentsen et al, 2012] (Table 1). Second, in general total least squares regression is used to estimate b since uncertainty in the response vector X can be accounted for [Allen and Stott, 2003;Hannart et al, 2014], but this requires a parametric estimate of the internal variability b-range that does not account for observational error.…”

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Century‐scale perspectives on observed and simulated Southern Ocean sea ice trends from proxy reconstructions

et al. 2016

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Since 1979 when continuous satellite observations began, Southern Ocean sea ice cover has increased, whilst global coupled climate models simulate a decrease over the same period. It is uncertain whether the observed trends are anthropogenically forced or due to internal variability, or whether the apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by internal variability. The shortness of the satellite record is one source of this uncertainty, and a possible solution is to use proxy reconstructions, which extend the analysis period but at the expense of higher observational uncertainty. In this work, we evaluate the utility for change detection of 20th century Southern Ocean sea ice proxies. We find that there are reliable proxies for the East Antarctic, Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Weddell sectors in late winter, and for the Weddell Sea in late autumn. Models and reconstructions agree that sea ice extent in the East Antarctic, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas has decreased since the early 1970s, consistent with an anthropogenic response. However, the decrease is small compared to internal variability, and the change is not robustly detectable. We also find that optimal fingerprinting filters out much of the uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. The Ross Sea is a confounding factor, with a significant increase in sea ice since 1979 that is not captured by climate models; however, existing proxy reconstructions of this region are not yet sufficiently reliable for formal change detection.

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MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments

Cited by 1,138 publications

References 103 publications

Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends

Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends

Support for the evolutionary speed hypothesis from intraspecific population genetic data in the non-biting midgeChironomus riparius

Century‐scale perspectives on observed and simulated Southern Ocean sea ice trends from proxy reconstructions

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