Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Handler, Stephen D.; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Iverson, Louis R.; Peters, Emily B.; Scheller, Robert M.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Brandt, Leslie A.; Butler, Patricia R.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Barrett, Kelly; Kolka, Randy; McQuiston, Casey; Palik, Brian J.; Reich, Peter B.; Turner, C. L.; White, Mark A.; Adams, Cheryl; D’Amato, Anthony W.; Hagell, Suzanne; Johnson, Patricia S.; Johnson, Rosemary; Larson, Mike; Matthews, Stephen N.; Montgomery, Rebecca; Olson, Steve; Peters, Matthew P.; Prasad, Anantha; Rajala, Jack; Daley, Jad; Davenport, Mae A.; Emery, Marla R.; Fehringer, David; Hoving, Christopher L.; Johnson, Gary W.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Neitzel, David F.; Rissman, Adena R.; Rittenhouse, Chadwick D.; Ziel, Robert

doi:10.2737/nrs-gtr-133

Cited by 57 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…, Handler et al. ), the importance of boreal tree species (i.e., aspen, balsam fir, spruce species) declined in favor of oaks and northern hardwoods, with the strongest community change related to aspen decline (Fig. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…We focused on a large landscape in north‐central Minnesota (USA) because (1) all four disturbances are historically important, (2) climate change is expected to be substantial over the next century due to its relatively high latitude (Handler et al. ), and (3) there is a diverse suite of extant tree species that allows for emergent behaviors, as expressed through changes in succession via competition, facilitation, release, and compensatory growth (Xu et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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More than the sum of its parts: how disturbance interactions shape forest dynamics under climate change

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Interactions among disturbances are seldom quantified, and how they will be affected by climate change is even more uncertain. In this study, we sought to better understand how interactions among disturbances shift under climate change by applying a process-based landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II) to project disturbance regimes under climate change in north-central Minnesota, USA. Specifically, we (1) contrasted mortality rates and the extent of disturbance for four individual (single) disturbance regimes (fire, insects, wind, or forest management) vs. all four disturbance regimes operating simultaneously (concurrent) under multiple climate change scenarios and (2) determined how climate change interacts with single and concurrent disturbance regimes to affect carbon stocks and forest composition. Under single disturbance regimes, we found that climate change amplifies mortality, but did not substantially change the overall extent of disturbances. Tree mortality under the concurrent disturbance regime scenario was less than the sum of all single disturbance regimes, providing evidence of significant negative feedbacks among disturbances, particularly under climate change. Finally, we found that climate change was the most critical driver of area harvested (via shifts in species composition), soil carbon, species composition, and diversity, while the disturbance regime (i.e., single or concurrent) had a larger influence on aboveground carbon and the relative dominance of conifers vs. hardwoods. In conclusion, our simulations suggest that disturbance interactions will be strongly mediated by climate change and will produce increasingly negative feedbacks, preventing worst-case disturbance outcomes. Our results underscore the importance of running simulations with multiple disturbances on the landscape concurrently rather than focusing on any one or two disturbances.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

More than the sum of its parts: how disturbance interactions shape forest dynamics under climate change

et al. 2018

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“…Although we found some seasonal and diurnal variation in our ability to meet our target treatment levels, our achieved treatments match seasonal patterns of long‐term climate change in northeastern Minnesota, where temperature elevations have also been lower in midsummer than in shoulder seasons and lower at day than night (Handler et al ., ). Thus, our realized treatments better match historical warming than our target goals.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment

Rich

Stefański

Montgomery

et al. 2015

Global Change Biology

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Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall).

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“…It is a function of potential climate change impacts and the adaptive capacity of the system. We consider urban forests to be vulnerable if they are anticipated to suffer substantial declines in health or productivity, similar to assessments of natural ecosystems Butler et al 2015;Handler et al 2014aHandler et al , 2014bJanowiak et al 2014). However, unlike in previous assessments of forested areas largely away from urban areas, considerations of social, economic, and organizational factors are critical in determining the overall vulnerability of an urban forest (Ordóñez and Duinker 2014).…”

Section: Key Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This process built upon concepts for assessing the vulnerability of urban forests (Ordóñez and Duinker 2014) as well as vulnerability assessments focused on natural forests and completed for the Climate Change Response Framework Butler et al 2015;Handler et al 2014aHandler et al , 2014bJanowiak et al 2014). Our process was designed to draw upon urban forestry professionals' knowledge about the urban forests that they manage and to consider how these systems may change given projected climate changes.…”

Section: Urban Vulnerability Assessment Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

Brandt¹,

Lewis²,

Scott³

et al. 2017

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The urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region, a 7-million-acre area covering portions of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21 st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the Chicago Wilderness region to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how nonnative species and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening the urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region. Major current threats to the region's urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, land-use change, development, and fragmentation. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show a temperature increase of 1 °F in the Chicago Wilderness region. Precipitation increased as well, especially during the summer. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.3 to 8.2 °F by the end of the century, with temperature increases across all seasons. Projections for precipitation show an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by model. Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 11 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 40 species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that 15 percent of the trees currently present in the region have either moderate-high or high vulnerability to climate change, and many of those trees with low vulnerability are invasive species.We developed a process for self-assessment of urban forest vulnerability that was tested by urban forestry professionals from four municipalities, three park districts, and three forest preserve districts in the region. The professionals generally rated the impacts of climate change on the places they managed as moderately negative, mostly driven by the potential effects of extreme storms and heavy precipitation on trees in the area. The capacity of forests to adapt to climate change ranged widely based on economic, social, and organizational factors, as well as on the diversity of species and genotypes of trees in the area. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urb...

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Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Abstract: led the forest impact modeling and contributed writing and expertise to much of the assessment. All modeling teams coordinated their efforts impressively.

Cited by 57 publications

References 6 publications

More than the sum of its parts: how disturbance interactions shape forest dynamics under climate change

More than the sum of its parts: how disturbance interactions shape forest dynamics under climate change

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

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