2019
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-0902-6
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Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul

Abstract: The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM's net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projec… Show more

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Cited by 45 publications
(48 citation statements)
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“…While this paper was in preparation, Bradshaw et al . () reported a similar conclusion to ours. Based on an entirely different modelling procedure, these authors proposed a census founding population of 1300 to 1550 people arriving at a single point in time or within a period of about 700 to 900 years.…”
Section: Resultssupporting
confidence: 91%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…While this paper was in preparation, Bradshaw et al . () reported a similar conclusion to ours. Based on an entirely different modelling procedure, these authors proposed a census founding population of 1300 to 1550 people arriving at a single point in time or within a period of about 700 to 900 years.…”
Section: Resultssupporting
confidence: 91%
“…A similar conclusion has been recently reached by Bradshaw et al . () based on a different approach to ours. If we are both correct, the demographic scope of this colonisation indicates that the process was more complex than previously allowed and the existing explanatory models are in need of revision.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To reach Sahul, the initial settlers from Sunda had to cross up to 90 km stretches of water between the Wallacean islands using still debated southern and/or northern routes via Timor and/or Sulawesi [7][8][9][10]. Bradshaw et al [11] modeled an initial population size of between 1300 and 1550 individuals for the peopling of Sahul, indicating this was a planned crossing involving substantial numbers of people. The eastern part of New Guinea was reached by 49 kya (Ivane valley [12]), the islands of New Ireland by 45 kya, involving a sea crossing of 50 km (Buang Merabak [13]) and the North Solomons by 33 kya with an open sea crossing of 80-180 km depending on the route taken (Kilu cave on Buka island [14]).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Yellow shading represents putative arrival window (including uncertainties) of humans in Sahul, see Bradshaw et al . 41 for discussion.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%