Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future

Abstract

Abstract:The adequacy of mineral resources in light of population growth and rising standards of living has been a concern since the time of Malthus (1798), but many studies erroneously forecast impending peak production or exhaustion because they confuse reserves with "all there is". Reserves are formally defined as a subset of resources, and even current and potential resources are only a small subset of "all there is". Peak production or exhaustion cannot be modeled accurately from reserves. Using copper as an example, identified resources are twice as large as the amount projected to be needed through 2050. Estimates of yet-to-be discovered copper resources are up to 40-times more than currently-identified resources, amounts that could last for many centuries. Thus, forecasts of imminent peak production due to resource exhaustion in the next 20-30 years are not valid. Short-term supply problems may arise, however, and supply-chain disruptions are possible at any time due to natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes) or political complications. Needed to resolve these problems are education and exploration technology development, access to prospective terrain, better recycling and better accounting of externalities associated with production (pollution, loss of ecosystem services and water and energy use).

Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?

“…Between 1998 and 2014, world material extraction of the main commodities increased by a factor of 1.7 [1,2], a very significant number if we compare it to the 8-factor increase observed by Krausmann et al [3] from 1900 to 2005. For instance, in the past 10 years, approximately one quarter of the total historic mine production of copper was produced, showing that global copper production has doubled every 25 years since data started being recorded [4]. Meeting the increasing demands for metals makes the mining industry one of the most energy-intensive industrial sectors.…”

Urban Mines of Copper: Size and Potential for Recycling in the EU

“…Variations between different criticality assessments and for different geographical levels are understandable [11]. Also, concerns about mine production peaks and mineral reserves' adequacy to satisfy future Cu demand are downsized when all the potentially extractable resources are taken into account, reducing the matter to the way the society can extract the maximum value from resources through its production and consumption patterns [12].…”

Future Global Mineral Resources

“…1.4). The terminology used by industry is defined by national organisations in different countries and by security regulators who adjudicate on meaning and compliance (Meinert et al, 2016). For instance, the Australasian JORC (Joint Ore Reserves Committee) Code for Reporting of Exploration Results Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves (http://www.jorc.org) only permits the term Ore Reserve to be applied to those parts of the two higher of the three classifications of Mineral Resource, defined by the Code, that have been subjected to a mining feasibility study (Section 3) and judged to be mineable.…”

“…The most important issue is simple economics. As noted by Meinert et al (2016), "the time value of money makes it uneconomic to spend unlimited amounts to convert all identified ... resources into reserves." In other words, if a company has sufficient reserves for the next few decades (and to justify the cost of building a mine to extract the ore), there is no point in spending large sums to find more unless it is planning to increase its production of the commodity.…”

“…The wide ranges, for both supply and demand, demonstrate the large uncertainties inherent to such long-term estimates. Meinert et al (2016) discussed this issue with reference to Cu and concluded that "forecasts of imminent peak production due to resource exhaustion in the next 20-30 years are not valid". They based this assertion on geologic evaluations of the total amount of Cu that might be extracted, thereby providing an introduction to the other important method that is used to assess global mineral resources, geology-based estimations, as outlined below.…”