Milk quality and production under climate change uncertainty: case of the Algerian cattle breed

Abstract

Algerian indigenous cattle breeds are well adapted to the harsh local arid and semi-arid environments. This study aims to summarize livestock practices, milk quality, and discuss the potential of local cattle breeds to maintain production capacity in the face of global warming conditions. A total of 175 smallholder farmers who practice the breeding of the Algerian local cattle breed were interviewed using a formal questionnaire. Following that, 122 milk samples were collected for physicochemical and bacteriological analyses. Climate data variability in the study area was evaluated. Results reveal that between 1980 and 2018, the average annual temperature rose by 0.3 ± 0.001 °C per year. Predictions suggest that by 2081 to 2100, temperatures could increase by 1.18°C under SSP1-2.6, 2.33°C under SSP2-4.5, and 4.59°C under SSP5-8.5. In the same period from 1980 to 2018, annual precipitation decreased by -0.99 ± 0.24 mm per year. Projections indicate a further decline of 22.5 mm for SSP1-2.6, 44.4 mm for SSP2-4.5, and 95.2 mm for SSP5-8.5 from 1980-2000 to 2081-2100. These changes in temperature and precipitation coincided with an expansion of cropland, which increased by 90.3% from 1992 to 2005. Conversely, pasture areas decreased by 53.7% between 1993 and 2009. A socio-demographic survey revealed that breeders have a low educational level (39.4% are unlettered). They own a small herd (6.84 ± 8.66 cattle). Moreover, the average daily milk production was 4.13 ± 2.12 Liters/cow, with acceptable physicochemical quality but poor bacteriological quality. Considering the climate change vulnerability of the study area, we can conclude that the exploitation of local breeds seems to be the best adaptation strategy to climate change effects. Conservation programs for local breeds can enhance biodiversity and ecosystem balance. Concurrently, genetic improvement programs have the potential to boost productivity and profitability, making substantial contributions to social equity and local economies.