Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds

Gilroy, James J.; Gill, Jennifer A.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Jones, Victoria R.; Franco, Aldina M. A.

doi:10.1111/ele.12569

Cited by 185 publications

(212 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Although our study focused on a single population of a broadly distributed songbird, variation in the non-breeding environment likely plays a primary role in limiting population growth rates of a wide range of migratory birds2027, given that non-breeding grounds are typically used during resource-poor periods of the year and that survival is a key vital rate driving population growth in birds28. That males and females had similar survival probabilities even though temperatures were, on average, 5 °C higher at the female- versus male-specific wintering grounds, suggests that temperature was not the only environmental factor influencing this vital rate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird

et al. 2017

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Understanding the factors that limit and regulate wildlife populations requires insight into demographic and environmental processes acting throughout the annual cycle. Here, we combine multi-year tracking data of individual birds with a 26-year demographic study of a migratory songbird to evaluate the relative effects of density and weather at the breeding and wintering grounds on population growth rate. Our results reveal clear support for opposing forces of winter temperature and breeding density driving population dynamics. Above-average temperatures at the wintering grounds lead to higher population growth, primarily through their strong positive effects on survival. However, population growth is regulated over the long term by strong negative effects of breeding density on both fecundity and adult male survival. Such knowledge of how year-round factors influence population growth, and the demographic mechanisms through which they act, will vastly improve our ability to predict species responses to environmental change and develop effective conservation strategies for migratory animals.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird

et al. 2017

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“…For instance, many studies predict that endemic or range-limited species will be most vulnerable to climate change (Urban 2015). This increased vulnerability may be related to the limited intra-specific trait variation and inherent demographic instability of small populations (Urban 2015, Gilroy et al 2016. Species with smaller geographic ranges, however, are also more likely to experience a single climate change regime (Liebold et al 2004).…”

Section: Asynchronous Regimes Dispersal and Intra-specific Variatiomentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

2017

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Global climate change has already caused local declines and extinctions. These losses are generally thought to occur because climate change is progressing too rapidly for populations to keep pace. Based on this hypothesis, numerous predictive frameworks have been developed to project future range shifts and changes in population dynamics resulting from global climate change. However, recent empirical work has demonstrated that seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes -when a region is warming during some parts of the year, but cooling in others -are constraining species' responses to climate change more strongly than rapid warming, leading to intra-specific variation in responses to climate change and local population declines. Here, we couple a review of the literature related to asynchronous climate change regimes with meta-population simulations and an analysis of long-term North American climate trends to show that seasonally asynchronous regimes are occurring throughout most of North America and that their current spatial distribution may be a strong barrier to dispersal and gene flow across many species' ranges. Thus, even though adaptation to climate change may potentially be more common and rapid than previously thought, species whose ranges overlap with asynchronous regimes will likely succumb to local declines that may be difficult to mitigate via dispersal. Future climate-related predictive frameworks should therefore incorporate asynchronous regimes as well as more traditional measures of climate velocity in order to fully capture the array of potential future climate change scenarios.

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“…Many studies have discussed the population trends of, threats to, and conservation recommendations for waterbirds at global scales and in Europe and North America (e.g., Thomas et al 2006;Gilroy et al 2016;Amano et al 2017). The population status of and threats to waterbirds in China is increasingly concerned due to China's importance for waterbird conservation along the flyways.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population trends, threats, and conservation recommendations for waterbirds in China

et al. 2018

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Background: China is one of the countries with abundant waterbird diversity. Over the past decades, China's waterbirds have suffered increasing threats from direct and indirect human activities. It is important to clarify the population trends of and threats to waterbirds as well as to put forward conservation recommendations. Methods:We collected data of population trends of a total of 260 waterbird species in China from Wetlands International database. We calculated the number of species with increasing, declining, stable, and unknown trends. We collected threatened levels of waterbirds from the Red List of China' s Vertebrates (2016), which was compiled according to the IUCN criteria of threatened species. Based on literature review, we refined the major threats to the threatened waterbird species in China.Results: Of the total 260 waterbird species in China, 84 species (32.3%) exhibited declining, 35 species (13.5%) kept stable, and 16 species (6.2%) showed increasing trends. Population trends were unknown for 125 species (48.1%). There was no significant difference in population trends between the migratory (32.4% decline) and resident (31.8% decline) species or among waterbirds distributed exclusively along coasts (28.6% decline), inland (36.6% decline), and both coasts and inland (32.5% decline). A total of 38 species (15.1% of the total) were listed as threatened species and 27 species (10.8% of the total) Near Threatened species. Habitat loss was the major threat to waterbirds, with 32 of the total 38 (84.2%) threatened species being affected. In addition, 73.7% (28 species), 71.1% (27 species), and 57.9% (22 species) of the threatened species were affected by human disturbance, environmental pollution, and illegal hunting, respectively. Conclusions:We propose recommendations for waterbird conservation, including (1) strengthening conservation of nature wetlands and restoration of degraded wetlands, (2) enhancing public awareness on waterbird conservation, (3) improving the enforcement of Wildlife Protection Law and cracking down on illegal hunting, (4) carrying out longterm waterbird surveys to clarify population dynamics, (5) restoring populations of highly-threatened species through artificial intervention, and (6) promoting international and regional exchanges and cooperation to share information in waterbirds and their conservation.

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Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds

Cited by 185 publications

References 45 publications

Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird

Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

Population trends, threats, and conservation recommendations for waterbirds in China

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