Migration of volcanism in the San Francisco volcanic field, Arizona

Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Shoemaker, E. M.; Ulrich, G. E.; Wolfe, Edward W.

doi:10.1130/0016-7606(1986)97<129:movits>2.0.co;2

Cited by 109 publications

(65 citation statements)

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“…Apparently, the first vent to erupt in this group was one of the northeasternmost spatter vents (FV-1), which erupted about 900 ka ( Table 2) Table 2), suggesting that magma was still rising along the southwest part of the fault system. Clearly, the spatial distribution of vents along the alignment shows no correlation with overall eastward shifts in volcanic activity in the field as a whole [Tanaka et al, 1986].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Timing of basaltic volcanism along the Mesa Butte Fault in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, from ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates: Implications for longevity of cinder cone alignments

Conway¹,

Ferrill²,

Hall³

et al. 1997

J. Geophys. Res.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Timing of basaltic volcanism along the Mesa Butte Fault in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, from ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates: Implications for longevity of cinder cone alignments

Conway¹,

Ferrill²,

Hall³

et al. 1997

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…Shifts in the locus of activity within a volcanic field have been noted by Tanaka et al (1986) from west to east in the San Francisco volcanic field over the last 2.5 My, and Connor and Hill (1995) found substantial movement in volcanic activity (east to west) within the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada. Kiyosugi et al (2010) noted a constant location of volcanism within the Abu Monogenetic Volcano Group, Japan over the last 0.46 My, and Condit and Connor (1996) observed continuous waxing and waning of certain areas across Springerville volcanic field, Arizona.…”

Section: Temporal Invariancementioning

confidence: 95%

Sensitivity to volcanic field boundary

et al. 2015

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Volcanic hazard analyses are desirable where there is potential for future volcanic activity to affect a proximal population. This is frequently the case for volcanic fields (regions of distributed volcanism) where low eruption rates, fertile soil, and attractive landscapes draw populations to live close by. Forecasting future activity in volcanic fields almost invariably uses spatial or spatio-temporal point processes with model selection and development based on exploratory analyses of previous eruption data. For identifiability reasons, spatio-temporal processes, and practically also spatial processes, the definition of a spatial region is required to which volcanism is confined. However, due to the complex and predominantly unknown sub-surface processes driving volcanic eruptions, definition of a region based solely on geological information is currently impossible. Thus, the current approach is to fit a shape to the known previous eruption sites. The class of boundary shape is an unavoidable subjective decision taken by the forecaster that is often overlooked during subsequent analysis of results. This study shows the substantial effect that this choice may have on even the simplest exploratory methods for hazard forecasting, illustrated using four commonly used exploratory statistical methods and two very different regions: the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, and Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. For Harrat Rahat, sensitivity of results to boundary definition is substantial. For the Auckland Volcanic Field, the range of options resulted in similar shapes, nevertheless, some of the statistical tests still showed substantial variation in results. This work highlights the fact that when carrying out any hazard analysis on volcanic fields, it is vital to specify how the volcanic field boundary has been defined, assess the sensitivity of boundary choice, and to carry these assumptions and related uncertainties through to estimates of future activity and hazard analyses.

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“…Patterns of volcanism are complex and shifts or migration in the location of volcanism over periods of million of years have been documented in many basaltic volcanic fields: Examples include the Coso Volcanic Field in California (Duffield et al 1980;Condit et. al 1989); San Francisco Volcanic Field in Arizona (Tanaka et al 1986); Lunar Crater Volcanic Field in Nevada (Foland and Bergman 1992); Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field in Mexico (Hasenaka and Carmichael 1985); and Cima Volcanic Field in California (Dohrenwend et al 1984;Turrin et al 1985). Recently, Smith et al (2002) proposed a linkage between Quaternary volcanism near YM and in the Lunar Crater field nearly 100 km to the north.…”

Section: Patterns Of Volcanismmentioning

confidence: 95%

Hazard area and probability of volcanic disruption of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

Smith

Keenan

2006

Bull Volcanol

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Models that calculate the probability that a new volcano or a dike from a nearby eruption will intersect the footprint of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository are generalized based on a conceptual model developed for the space transportation industry. The proposed hazard area, defined such that every new eruption that occurs there will disrupt the repository, plays a fundamental role in developing probability models. This hazard area is used not only to hedge the uncertainties in predicting patterns of future volcanic activity, but also to account for the characteristics of a new eruption during the post-closure performance period of an underground geologic repository. The paper discusses the advantages of probability comparisons, capabilities of conservativeness measurements and expert-elicitation on model parameters, and the implications to the proposed repository.

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Migration of volcanism in the San Francisco volcanic field, Arizona

Cited by 109 publications

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Timing of basaltic volcanism along the Mesa Butte Fault in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, from ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates: Implications for longevity of cinder cone alignments

Timing of basaltic volcanism along the Mesa Butte Fault in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, from ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates: Implications for longevity of cinder cone alignments

Sensitivity to volcanic field boundary

Hazard area and probability of volcanic disruption of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

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Migration of volcanism in the San Francisco volcanic field, Arizona

Cited by 109 publications

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Timing of basaltic volcanism along the Mesa Butte Fault in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, from 40Ar/39Ar dates: Implications for longevity of cinder cone alignments

Timing of basaltic volcanism along the Mesa Butte Fault in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, from 40Ar/39Ar dates: Implications for longevity of cinder cone alignments

Sensitivity to volcanic field boundary

Hazard area and probability of volcanic disruption of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

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Product

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Timing of basaltic volcanism along the Mesa Butte Fault in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, from ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates: Implications for longevity of cinder cone alignments

Timing of basaltic volcanism along the Mesa Butte Fault in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, from ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates: Implications for longevity of cinder cone alignments