Migration in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: insights from analogues

Abstract

Migration is one of the variety of ways by which human populations adapt to environmental changes. The study of migration in the context of anthropogenic climate change is often approached using the concept of vulnerability and its key functional elements: exposure, system sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This article explores the interaction of climate change and vulnerability through review of case studies of dry-season migration in the West African Sahel, hurricane-related population displacements in the Caribbean basin, winter migration of ‘snowbirds’ to the US Sun-belt, and 1930s drought migration on the North American Great Plains. These examples are then used as analogues for identifying general causal, temporal, and spatial dimensions of climate migration, along with potential considerations for policy-making and future research needs.

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity of community food systems in the Peruvian Amazon: a case study from Panaillo

“…Although temporal analogues cannot exactly replicate future conditions, they are still useful to examine societal interactions with current climate variability and to provide an empirical baseline for assessing future vulnerability and opportunity for adaptation (Ford et al, 2010b;Ford et al, 2006;McLeman & Hunter, 2010;Giles & Perry, 1998).…”

“…Several temporal analogue studies have focused specifically on vulnerability and extreme climatic events (Giles & Perry, 1998;McLeman & Hunter, 2010;Adger et al, 2012;White & Etkin, 1998;Trenberth & Fasullo, 2012;Erlat & Türkes, 2012) due to the increase in frequency of climate extremes (Trenberth & Fasullo, 2012;Erlat & Türkes, 2012;, the projection that 'extreme' events may become more 'normal' and severe with the onset of climate change (Adger et al, 2007;Giles & Perry, 1998), and the potential for extreme events to markedly increase vulnerability and/or motivate adaptation actions (Adger, 1999;Travis & Huisenga, 2013). Extreme climatic events have been shown to increase or decrease vulnerability (e.g., Adger et al, 2007, Fazey et al, 2011Travis & Huisenga, 2013).…”

“…Analogues are increasingly being used in climate change vulnerability research and are based upon the idea that knowledge about a particular subject can be used to provide insight into another subject with similar structure and organization (Ford et al, 2010b). Temporal analogues examine current and past experiences with climatic hazards in order to gain insight into future vulnerability to climate change (Glantz, 1991;McLeman & Hunter, 2010;Brooks et al, 2009;Ford et al, 2010b). In this study, Panaillo's experiences with flooding over the recent past are used to better understand the community's current ability to manage hydrological variability and extremes, as well as to provide insights into how Panaillo's food system might manage climatic hazards in the future.…”

“…The case study of Panaillo can also provide a spatial analogue for communities with similar characteristics that currently experience flooding or that might experience a new flood regime in the future with the onset of climate change (Ford et al, 2010b). issues and overarching themes can be drawn from a case-study analogue approach, and spatial and temporal analogues have proven to be useful in climate change vulnerability research in assessing and characterizing the drivers and circumstances that produce a particular outcome and in creating inference about future conditions (Hayman et al, 2012;Berrang-Ford, Ford, Paterson, 2011;Ford et al, 2010b;McLeman & Hunter, 2010;Glantz, 1991).…”

Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model

“…In fact, millions of people will be unable to move away from locations where they are vulnerable to environmental change. If climatedriven migration does occur, it will likely be short distance, within national borders 14 . The net result of this on international migration thus is quite uncertain.…”