Migration decisions under ambiguity: Migration distance effects revisited

Abstract

There is ample evidence that distance has a strong negative effect on migration. Despite its significance in migration decisions, scholars rarely explore the migration distance effect deeper than the first level of interpretation derived from the simple neoclassical theory of migration. This study revisits the migration distance effect in the spirit of Knightian distinction between risk and uncertainty. To this end, this study attempts to construct estimates of the risk premium migrants are willing to pay to avoid the risk associated with migration distance. The results show that the magnitude of the distance effect is not rationalized by risk aversion in the Arrow–Pratt sense (Arrow, 1965, The theory of risk aversion, Yrjo Jahnssonin Saatio, Helsinki, Finland, 90; Pratt, 1964, Econometrica, 32, 122). In particular, the risk premium demanded by distant rural residents is unjustifiably higher compared with that of those living closer to urban areas in their migration decisions. The results suggest that the migration distance effect is analogous to the equity home bias puzzle and the Ellsberg paradox in that the assumption of subjective expected utility can lead to seemingly irrational human behaviors. Some of the findings in this study shed light on the role of subjective aspects such as perception, confidence, and pessimism in migration decisions, which have been neglected in the literature.

The Impact of Changes in Rural Family Structure on Agricultural Productivity and Efficiency: Evidence from Rice Farmers in China

“…This is consistent with Meng et al (2016) [5], Zhou et al (2020) [22], and Kocatepe et al (2023) [55]. Our findings also emphasize the importance of considering regional differences in migration, which supports to some extent the views regarding migration region heterogeneity and distance heterogeneity mentioned in the studies of Lim (2019) [26], Xu and Li (2023) [56], and Piyapromdee (2021) [57].…”

“…In the long run, these investments will not only promote food security by supporting sustained agricultural output, but also enhance the well-being of the remaining agricultural labor force. Second, while extended migration distances may lead to higher income for migrant workers, they also come with increased costs related to time, transportation, and information [26]. We suggest that the government take measures to facilitate convenient transportation for migrant workers commuting between their hometowns and their off-farm work locations, particularly for those migrating to outside the province.…”

“…v i ~N 0, σ 2 v is used to measure the error caused by uncontrollable random factors and µ i ~N+ (u, σ 2 u ) follows truncated distribution and captures the technical inefficiency term of farmer i. Following Liu et al (2019) [26] and Aljohani and Chidmi (2024) [42], the TE can be expressed as follows:…”

“…The choice of location for migrant workers is a crucial aspect of migration decisionmaking, which is often disregarded in the existing literature. While extended migration distances may lead to a higher income, they also come with increased costs related to time, transportation, and information [26]. In general, local migrant workers can strike a balance between off-farm work and farm production.…”

Relationship between hukou conversion and psychological integration of rural older migrants: the mediating effect of accessibility to health resources

“…Second, existing literature primarily focused on migrant adolescents and workers rather than the older population. With increasing age, older adults tend to invest more in their original social networks, resulting in higher psychological integration costs associated with migration [ 38 ], making this group both important and unique. Our study further focused on the older adults, aged 60 to 74, showing that conversion from rural hukou to urban hukou significantly enhances the psychological integration level of older migrants compared to those who have consistently held rural hukou , aligning with the conclusions drawn in existing literature [ 39 , 40 ].…”