Migration and the Partner Market: How Gender-Selective Relocations Affect Regional Mating Chances in Germany

Abstract

The study explores the consequences of gender-selective internal migration for regional mating chances in Germany, comparing different cohorts as well as different types of regions. Indicators of the partner market based on time series of the official German regional population statistics are combined with indicators of migration and on regional economic, educational, and settlement structures. Instead of the simple sex ratio, which is the standard measure for partner market conditions in previous research, the study at hand uses the availability ratio suggested by Goldman et al. (Popul Index 50(1):5-25, 1984). The availability ratio takes into account that partner markets are structured by age preferences. Like previous studies, results show that gender-selective migration has led to a strong deterioration of mating chances for men in most eastern districts of Germany. Exceptions are districts offering universities as well as a large tertiary sector. But, unlike previous research, results also show that migration-caused imbalances of the partner market in eastern German districts are not extraordinarily high. In the western part of Germany, there were at times even stronger partner market imbalances for some male cohorts as a consequence of oscillating birth rates.Keywords Regional studies Á Internal migration Á Marriage market Á Marriage squeeze Á East Germany Á Availability ratio Á Sex ratio In many industrialized countries, there is an overproportional migration of women from rural into urban regions (for Norway: Dahlström 1996; Spain: Camarero and Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

The turnaround in internal migration between East and West Germany over the period 1991 to 2018

“…Our results thus suggest that the unbalanced sex-ratios in rural areas of East Germany are caused by higher levels of male migration from West to the East, rather than by higher levels of female migration from East to West. Shortages of young women in rural areas can also be attributed to young females being more likely to move to urban areas for educational and job-related reasons than their male counterparts of the same ages (Eckhard and Stauder 2018). This phenomenon, however, is not only restricted to East Germany and also affects rural regions in West Germany which are increasingly confronted with shortages of young women as well.…”

“…These systematic migration flows to the West are typically attributed to inferior employment conditions in East Germany reflected by fewer job opportunities, higher unemployment rates, and lower wages (Alecke, Mitze, and Untiedt 2009;Büchel and Schwarze 1994;Burda 1993;Burda and Hunt 2001;Glorius 2010). As a consequence of selective outmigration, many rural regions in the former East German states are confronted with accelerated population ageing, population decline, and shortages of women on the regional partner markets (Eckhard and Stauder 2018;Fuchs-Schündeln and Schündeln 2009;Kühntopf and Stedfeld 2012;Mai 2006;Werding 2002).…”

Partner market opportunities and union formation over the life course—A comparison of different measures

“…Mating chances will be described most accurately when the partner market is defined within spatial limits that are congruent with the spatial range of individuals' everyday activities. Eckhard and Stauder (2017) explain that districts (Landkreise) are the most appropriate spatial entities for analysis in Germany. In the days of virtual online partner markets (see, e.g., Rosenfeld & Thomas, 2012), spatial limits might be regarded as irrelevant at first glance.…”

“…Measures were calculated for both sexes, for every age between 15 and 72, for years from 1985 to 2010, and for every administrative district (NUTS-3 regions) in Germany. 5 These administrative districts are the most appropriate representations of the spatial limits of local partner markets, because they are more or less congruent with the spatial range of individuals' everyday activities (Eckhard & Stauder, 2017). 6 The data used for the calculation of the various measures are taken from the official regional population statistics (Eckhard et al, 2014: 14-15).…”

“…As mentioned above, the probability of choosing a partner of a particular age might not exclusively reflect preferences for a certain age; it might also be a consequence of shortages on the partner market. However, strong structural restrictions of the age-specific probability to find a partner of a certain age should be based either on regional restrictions (due to age-and gender-specific inmigration or outmigration) or on the historical position of cohorts (increasing or declining birth numbers-in general and for certain regions), or a combination of both (see Eckhard & Stauder, 2017). In order to cancel out such local and historical restrictions of partner choice, the probabilities of choosing a partner of a certain age were calculated "independently" of cohorts and region.…”