Midlife obesity and dementia: Meta‐analysis and adjusted forecast of dementia prevalence in the united states and china

Abstract

Objective: Obesity is a risk factor of dementia. Current forecasts of dementia prevalence fail to take the rising obesity prevalence into account. Design and Methods: Embase and Medline were searched for observational studies on the association between overweight (BMI 25-30 kg/m 2 ) or obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m 2 ) and dementia and pooled the effect sizes by meta-analysis. The population attributable risk (PAR) was calculated for different time points and adjusted them for confounders. Based on current prevalence rates of dementia and demographic forecasts, patient numbers were calculated and adjusted by the growth rates of PAR. . If obesity is included into forecast models, the prevalence of dementia is estimated to be 7.1 million (6.9, 7.3) and 11.3 million (10.9, 11.7) for the United States in 2030 and 2050, respectively. In China, the estimate is 13.1 million (12.8, 13.3) in 2030 and 26.2 million (25.1, 27.4) in 2050. These figures are 9% and 19% higher for the United States and China, respectively, than forecasts that rely solely on the demographic change. Conclusion: The past and ongoing increase in midlife obesity prevalence will contribute significantly to the future prevalence of dementia and public health measures to reduce midlife obesity are simultaneously primary prevention measures to reduce the risk of dementia.Obesity (2013) 21, E51-E55.

Potential for primary prevention of Alzheimer's disease: an analysis of population-based data

“…However, more realistically, taking the correlation between these risk factors into account, this study estimates around one-third of the AD cases may be attributable to potentially modifiable factors. PAR estimates for each risk factor individually were broadly similar to most previous estimates, 1,2,4 Higher PAR estimates relating to midlife obesity and hypertension were reported by one study due to the higher prevalence estimates of the risk factors used by that study. 3 Several previous studies have considered the effect of a hypothetical intervention delaying the onset of AD (i.e.…”

“…One systematic review provided combined PAR estimates for all risk factors. 1 Four systematic reviews provided individual PAR estimates for diabetes, [1][2][3] midlife hypertension, 1,3 midlife obesity, 1,3,4 physical inactivity, 1 smoking, 1 depression, 1 and educational attainment. 1 …”

Summary of the evidence on modifiable risk factors for cognitive decline and dementia: A population‐based perspective

“…Most postulate this is a strong link, especially with regard to cognitive decline [20,22,[31][32][33][34][35][36]. The association may change with age, as being overweight-and, even possibly being obese-in later life has been associated with reduced risk of dementia [37][38][39][40][41].…”

Older age does not limit postbariatric surgery cognitive benefits: a preliminary investigation

“…Mid-life obesity is a significant risk factor for cognitive decline, and Alzheimer’s disease. 27 It is possible that bariatric surgery in older obese individuals may attenuate the pathogenesis of obesity accelerated cognitive decline and/or dementia related processes. Supporting this notion is a recent study that shows bariatric surgery is associated with reduced expression of Alzheimer’s disease markers (e.g., amyloid precursor protein) 18 as well as evidence for the effectiveness of weight loss surgery in individuals >65 years.…”