Mid-term quasi-periodicities in the CaII-K plage index of the Sun and their implications

Chowdhury, P.; Gokhale, M. H.; Singh, Jagdev; Moon, Y.-J.

doi:10.1007/s10509-015-2641-8

Cited by 30 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 120 publications

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“…It should be noted that the physical connection between the solar system dynamics and solar activity is not clear yet (Zaqarashvili, 1997;Juckett, 2003;Gokhale, 2010;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;Abreu et al, 2012;Cionco and Compagnucci, 2012;Wilson, Carter, and Waite, 2008;Wilson, 2013;Chowdhury et al, 2016;Stefani et al, 2016). However, the aim of the present analysis is not to establish this connection.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

Javaraiah¹

2017

Sol Phys

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The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 -24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the 'tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 -2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 -2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 -40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

Javaraiah¹

2017

Sol Phys

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“…In addition to the well-known 11-year solar cycle, solar activity varies on many shorter and longer timescales. For example, periodicities shorter than a year and of about two years are found in many solar activity indices (Rieger et al, 1984;Lean and Brueckner, 1989;Pap, Bouwer, Tobiska, 1990;Bai and Sturrock, 1991;Bouwer, 1992;Richardson et al, 1994;Krivova and Solanki, 2002;Özgüc, Atac, and Rybák, 2003;Kane, 2003;Bai, 2003;Obridko and Shelting, 2000;Obridko and Shelting, 2007;Chowdhury, Khan, and Ray, 2009;Scafetta and Willson, 2013;Kilcik et al, 2014;Chowdhury et al, 2016;and references therein). Studies of similar variations in the solar rotation data may help us to better understand the physical processes responsible for the solar variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-Term Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rate of Sunspot Groups

Javaraiah¹,

Bertello

2016

Sol Phys

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We have detected several periodicities in the solar equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups in the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1931-1976, the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) during the period 1977-2014, and the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1974-2014. Our results suggest a ~250-day period in the equatorial rotation rate determined from both the Mt. Wilson Doppler-velocity data and the sunspot-group data during 1986-2007. However, a wavelet analysis reveals that this periodicity appears mostly around 1991 in the velocity data, while it is present in most of the solar cycles covered by the sunspot-group data, mainly near the minimum epochs of the solar cycles. We also found the signature of a period of ~1.4 years period in the velocity data during 1990-1995, and in the equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups mostly around the year 1956. The equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups reveals a strong ~1.6-year periodicity around 1933 and 1955 and a weaker one around 1976, and a strong ~1.8-year periodicity around 1943. Our analysis also suggests periodicities of ~5 years, ~7 years, and ~17 years as well as some other short-term periodicities. However, short-term periodicities are mostly present at the time of solar minima. Hence, short-term periodicities cannot be confirmed because of the larger uncertainty in the data.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, to be published in Solar Physic

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“…For its part, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram (Lomb, 1976;Scargle, 1982) is a powerful tool commonly used in astrophysics to search for periodic patterns in an unevenly-sampled time series (see VanderPlas (2018) for the Python implementation used in this Section). The LSP has already been used to investigate periodicities in the sunspot areas/numbers (Ballester et al, 2005;Lomb, 2013;Chowdhury et al, 2013;Chowdhury et al, 2015;Lopes & Silva, 2015;Zhu & Jia, 2018) and also in the solar plage areas (Chowdhury et al, 2016). Actually, in this work, each obtained dataset of monthly sum of areas and occurrences of sunspots or solar plages is an uneven-time series due to the days without observations.…”

Section: Power Spectrum Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All the scaleograms suffer from edge-effect artefacts at both ends of each time series, which is shown in each scaleogram by dark hatched areas called cone of influence (COI). These edge effects, caused by having a finite-length time series, lead to a power reduction within the COI (Chowdhury et al, 2016). Thus, information in the scaleograms within their COI should be treated as suspect and is not highly significant.…”

Section: Feature (Observatory)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Periodic variations in the solar activity on time scales shorter than the 11-years Schwabe cycle have also been found. Two well-known examples of these short-term variations are the so-called Rieger periodicity of 154-158 days (Rieger et al, 1984), found especially in epochs of maximum activity (Lean, 1990;Oliver et al, 1998;Krivova & Solanki, 2002;Roy et al, 2020); and the 1-4 yr quasi-★ E-mail: vdepaula@obsebre.es biennial oscillations (QBOs) (Benevolenskaya, 1995;Mursula et al, 2003;Bazilevskaya et al, 2014;Chowdhury et al, 2016Chowdhury et al, , 2019.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The cyclic behaviour in the N-S asymmetry of sunspots and solar plages for the period 1910 to 1937 using data from Ebro catalogues

de Paula,

Curto,

Oliver

2022

Preprint

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The heliophysics catalogues published by the Ebro Observatory during 1910-1937 have been converted into a digital format in order to provide the data for computational processing. This has allowed us to study in detail the North-South (N-S) asymmetry of solar activity in that period, focusing on two different structures located at two different layers of the solar atmosphere: sunspots (Photosphere) and solar plages (Chromosphere). The examination of the absolute and normalised N-S asymmetry indices in terms of their monthly sum of occurrences and areas has made possible to find out a cyclic behaviour in the solar activity, in which the preferred hemisphere changes systematically with a global period of 7.9 ± 0.2 𝑦𝑟. In order to verify and quantify accurately this periodicity and study its prevalence in time, we employed the RGO-USAF/NOAA sunspot data series during 1874-2016. Then, we examined each absolute asymmetry index time series through different techniques as the power spectrum analysis, the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition With Adaptive Noise algorithm, or the Morlet wavelet transform. The combined results reveal a cyclic behaviour at different time scales, consisting in two quite stable periodicities of 1.47 ± 0.02 𝑦𝑟 and 3.83 ± 0.06 𝑦𝑟, which coexist with another three discontinuous components with more marked time-varying periods with means of 5.4 ± 0.2 𝑦𝑟, 9.0 ± 0.2 𝑦𝑟, and 12.7 ± 0.3 𝑦𝑟. Moreover, during 1910-1937, only two dominant signals with averaged periods of 4.10 ± 0.04 𝑦𝑟 and 7.57 ± 0.03 𝑦𝑟 can be clearly observed. Finally, in both signals, periods are slightly longer for plages in comparison with sunspots.

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Mid-term quasi-periodicities in the CaII-K plage index of the Sun and their implications

Cited by 30 publications

References 120 publications

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

Short-Term Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rate of Sunspot Groups

The cyclic behaviour in the N-S asymmetry of sunspots and solar plages for the period 1910 to 1937 using data from Ebro catalogues

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