“…Permafrost thaw occurring in many Arctic locations (Liljedahl et al, 2016) could trigger disturbances that either enhance or curtail shrub growth, depending on microsite characteristics; these feedbacks are also not considered in our model. Whereas feltleaf willows can capitalize on in situ nutrients in floodplains with well-drained soil and higher soil pH (Swanson, 2015), areas with frequent tundra fires (Jones et al, 2015) and thermokarst and thaw slumps (Huebner & Bret-Harte, 2019;Lantz, Kokelj, Gergel, & Henry, 2009) Herbivory in the floodplain also can potentially reduce shrub height and retard expansion rate for palatable species (Bryant, 1987; Bryant, Joly, Chapin, DeAngelis, & Kielland, 2014; Kielland et al, 1997;Olofsson et al, 2009;Olofsson & Post, 2018), though our model does not include these effects. Feltleaf willow is the preferred forage species of moose, hares, and ptarmigan (L. lagopus, Lagopus muta) in our study area (Zhou et al, 2017), and other arctic herbivores in the region, including muskox (Ovibo moschatus) and caribou, also prefer willows over well-defended species such as alder (Bryant & Kuropat, 1980;Christie et al, 2015).…”