Microcycles of Terrorist Violence in Turkey: a Spatio-temporal Analysis of the PKK Attacks

Duru, Haci; Onat, Ismail; Akyuz, Kadir; Akbaş, Halil Emre

doi:10.1007/s11417-020-09326-z

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The rst issue is also likely true for terrorism, especially given ndings of contagion effects, and the occurrence of micro-cycles of terrorism (e.g., Behlendorf et al, 2012;Duru et al, 2021). However, with respect to the second issue, it is unlikely that offending will come to outweigh police resources to the degree that it negatively impacts the arrest rate in such a way.…”

Section: Analytic Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Arrests and convictions but not sentence length deter terrorism in 28 European Union member states

Wolfowicz,

Campedelli,

Seaward

et al. 2023

Nat Hum Behav

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While countries differ signi cantly in how they handle terrorism, in the west, criminal justice systems tend to treat terrorism similar to other crime, with police, prosecutors, judges and courts, and penal systems carrying out similar functions of investigations, apprehension, charging, convicting, and overseeing punishments respectively. While there is a robust literature on deterrent effects for crime, there is a dearth of research when it comes to terrorism. This despite evidence of signi cant overlaps between crime and terrorism. We address this gap in the literature with a unique dataset covering terrorism offending, arrests, charges, convictions, and sentencing over 16 years in 28 EU-member states. Applying a dynamic panel data model, we nd that the probability of apprehension and punishment has an inverse relationship with terrorism offending. Conversely, the rate of charged individuals is associated with a small increase in the terrorism offending rate. The results for sentence length are less clear, with either negligible, or small iatrogenic effects. The results demonstrate that the overlap between crime and terrorism may extend to general deterrence. These ndings should be informative for both the research agenda and policy discussion. into behaviors when certain risk factors and situational and contextual factors are present. In general, the moral evaluations that terrorists have of their behaviors are not so different from those which criminals have toward their behaviors (Baez et al., 2017). In this respect, one of the most striking recent ndings is that general risk and protective factors for terrorism, and its cognitive antecedents, are virtually identical to risk and protective factors for violent crime and its cognitive antecedents. The (relative) magnitude of the effects are also markedly similar (Wolfowicz et al., 2021).These ndings add another layer to the growing evidence that shows that terrorism follows similar patterns as crime across a range of outcomes, including recidivism (Hasisi et al., 2020a), cycles of violence (Behlendorf, LaFree and Legault, 2012), target selection (Marchment & Gill, 2022), as well as network organization and attack timing (Johnson et al., 2013). Importantly, policing strategies found to be most effective in combatting crime are also those that appear most effective in combatting terrorism . Moreover, terrorism follows laws of crime concentration, distance decay functions (e.g., Hasisi et al., 2020b), and other patterns congruent with routine activities and crime pattern theory (e.g.,

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Section: Analytic Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%