Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change

Sanczuk, Pieter; Pauw, Karen De; Lombaerde, Emiel De; Luoto, Miska; Meeussen, Camille; Govaert, Sanne; Vanneste, Thomas; Depauw, Leen; Brunet, Jörg; Cousins, Sara A. O.; Gasperini, Cristina; Hedwall, Per‐Ola; Iacopetti, Giovanni; Lenoir, Jonathan; Plue, Jan; Selvi, Federico; Spicher, Fabien; Verheyen, Kris; Vangansbeke, Pieter; Frenne, Pieter De

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01744-y

Cited by 16 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Meanwhile, recruitment at warm and dry edges suggests lower and more arid edges in this system might not be trailing in response to climate warming. Although there is growing evidence that microclimate can buffer range shifts (e.g., Maclean & Early, 2023; Sanczuk et al, 2023), our study suggests range stasis is mostly temporal lags that are disguising species’ vulnerability to climate change. Thus, lagged range shifts imply a future sensitivity of species to climate change that will only become apparent over long time periods or when other factors overcome time-lagged disequilibrium.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 56%

“…For example, increased shade in denser tree canopies creates cooler and less variable ground temperatures for understory plants compared to the broader landscape (Frey et al, 2016; Vinod et al, 2023). These cooler microhabitats can protect species from atmospheric warming, allowing individuals to persist in unsuitably warm macroclimates within the range (Maclean & Early, 2023; Sanczuk et al, 2023). Meanwhile, exposed, open canopy gaps that experience more intense macroclimatic change (Sanczuk et al, 2023) may create hot spots for establishment at leading edges and facilitate upward range expansion (Tourville et al, 2022; Fig 1B).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lagged climate-driven range shifts at species’ leading, but not trailing, range edges revealed by multispecies seed addition experiment

Goodwin,

Chardon,

Pradhan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Climate change is causing many species’ ranges to shift upslope to higher elevations as species track their climatic requirements. However, many species have not shifted in pace with recent warming (i.e., ‘range stasis’), possibly due either to demographic lags or microclimatic buffering. The ‘lagged-response hypothesis’ posits that range stasis disguises an underlying climatic sensitivity if range shifts lag the velocity of climate change due to slow colonization or mortality. Alternatively, the ‘microclimatic buffering hypothesis’ proposes that small-scale variation within the landscape, such as canopy cover, creates patches of suitable habitat within otherwise unsuitable macroclimates that create climate refugia and buffer range contractions. To test these two hypotheses, we combined a large seed addition experiment of 25 plant species across macro- and micro-scale climate gradients with local herbaria records to compare patterns of seedling recruitment relative to adult ranges and microclimate in the North Cascades, USA. Despite high species-to-species variability in recruitment, community-level patterns supported the lagged response hypothesis, with a mismatch between where recruitment vs. adults occur. On average, the seedling recruitment optimum shifted from the adult climatic range centre to historically cooler, wetter regions and many species recruited beyond their cold (e.g., leading) range edge. Meanwhile, successful recruitment at warm and dry edges, despite recent climate change, suggests that macroclimatic effects on recruitment do not drive trailing range dynamics. By contrast, we were unable to detect evidence of microclimatic buffering due to canopy cover. Combined, our results suggest apparent range stasis in our system is a lagged response to climate change at the cool ends of species ranges, with range expansions likely to occur slowly or in a punctuated fashion.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 56%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lagged climate-driven range shifts at species’ leading, but not trailing, range edges revealed by multispecies seed addition experiment

Goodwin,

Chardon,

Pradhan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…In addition to modifying forest structure, fragmentation in Amazonian rainforests can elevate tree-community dynamics (mortality, damage, turnover) near forest edges, further exacerbating edge effects on disturbance-sensitive species (Laurance et al, 1998;Ewers and Banks-Leite, 2013). Such impacts on microclimate can substantially affect the carbon balance, ecosystem functioning, and biodiversity in tropical moist forests (Vourlitis et al, 2004;Jucker et al, 2020;Sanczuk et al, 2023). Warmer and drier microclimate and leaf area reduction after deforestation may potentially convert transitional forests between tropical moist forests and savanna in Brazilian Amazon to be CO 2 sources in the future, by affecting forest respiration and canopy photosynthesis (Vourlitis et al, 2004).…”

Section: Biogeochemical and Biophysical Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent advances and challenges in monitoring and modeling of disturbances in tropical moist forests

He,

Li,

Zhao

et al. 2024

Front. Remote Sens.

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Tropical moist forests have been severely affected by natural and anthropogenic disturbances, leading to substantial changes in global carbon cycle and climate. These effects have received great attention in scientific research and debates. Here we review recent progress on drivers and ecological impacts of tropical moist forest disturbances, and their monitoring and modeling methods. Disturbances in tropical moist forests are primarily driven by clearcutting, selective logging, fire, extreme drought, and edge effects. Compound disturbances such as fire and edge effects aggravate degradation in the edge forests. Drought can result in terrestrial carbon loss via physiological impacts. These disturbances lead to direct carbon loss, biophysical warming and microclimate change. Remote sensing observations are promising for monitoring forest disturbances and revealing mechanisms, which will be useful for implementing disturbance processes in dynamic vegetation models. Yet, constrained spatiotemporal coverages and resolutions limit the application of these data in process-based models. It is also challenging to represent physical processes derived from fine-resolution remote sensing data in coarse-resolution models. We highlight the need to continuously integrate new datasets and physical processes in forest disturbance modeling to advance understanding of disturbance patterns and impacts. Interactions and impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities should also be considered for modeling and assessing feedbacks of tropical moist forest disturbances.

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“…Analogous to other correlative climate-based SDMs, they are likely to fail for many reasons unrelated to the accuracy and resolution of the climate data. For example, SDMs often do not consider demographic processes and biotic interactions that mediate population responses (Sanczuk et al, 2023). However, the SDM toolbox has been extended to accommodate these shortcomings.…”

Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

Haesen,

Lenoir,

Gril

et al. 2023

Ecology Letters

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Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse‐grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate‐based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate‐based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate‐based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide.

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Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change

Abstract: The impacts of microclimate on future plant population dynamics is poorly understood. The authors use large-scale transplant climate-change experiments to show the contribution of forest microclimates to population dynamics and project the distributions of twelve common understorey plants.

Cited by 16 publications

References 72 publications

Lagged climate-driven range shifts at species’ leading, but not trailing, range edges revealed by multispecies seed addition experiment

Lagged climate-driven range shifts at species’ leading, but not trailing, range edges revealed by multispecies seed addition experiment

Recent advances and challenges in monitoring and modeling of disturbances in tropical moist forests

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

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