In 1997, the Mexican government reversed long-standing policies and allowed foreign banks to purchase Mexico's largest commercial banks and relaxed restrictions on the founding of new, foreign-owned banks. The result has been a dramatic shift in the ownership structure of Mexico's banks. For instance, while in 1991 only one percent of bank assets in Mexico were foreign owned, today they control 74 percent of assets. In no other country in the world has the penetration of foreign banks been as rapid or as far-reaching as in Mexico.In this work we examine some of the important implications of foreign bank entry for social welfare in Mexico. Did liberalization lead to an increase (or decrease) in the supply of credit?Did liberalization lead to an increase (or decrease) in the cost of credit? Did liberalization lead to an increase (or decrease) in the stability of the banking system?In order to answer these questions, we must first ask, -increase (or decrease), measured on what basis?‖ There are, in fact, two distinct conceptual frameworks through which one can assess the impact of foreign bank entry. One is concerned with measuring the short-run impacts of foreign entry on credit abundance, pricing, and observable stability using reduced form regressions. The other is an institutional economics conception of how to measure performance. It is focused on understanding whether foreign entry gave rise to difficult-to-reverse changes in the political economy of bank regulation, which will affect competition and stability in the long term, outside the period that may be observed empirically. We employ both conceptions in this paper.
3When we look at the impact of foreign entry using econometrics, the evidence strongly indicates that Mexico's banking system is now much more stable. The ratio of nonperforming loans has declined dramatically, while equity ratios have increased. System stability does not appear to have come at the cost of a decrease in the availability of credit. In fact, credit to firms and households has increased in real terms. System stability also does not appear to have come at the cost of higher priced credit. In fact, the evidence suggests that foreign banks charge lower interest spreads than domestically-owned banks.When we take a broader, political economy view of the impact of foreign bank entry in Mexico, the evidence indicates that there if there ever was a -good old days‖ of Mexican banking, in which credit was abundant and the system was stable, we are in it. From the 1920s through the 1960s the Mexican banking system was stable, but it provided very modest amounts of credit to firms and households. Moreover, the stability of the system may have been an artifact of the ability of commercial banks to shift risk to government-owned development banks, which is to say that risk was quietly shifted to taxpayers. The banking system that existed in Mexico from the 1970s until 1997 was characterized by periods of rapid credit growth, followed by devastating busts, the aftermaths of which were characte...