The article deals with the influence of the defect initial shape on the residual lifetime of a continuous casting machine roll made of 25Cr1MoV steel. Based on this approach, previously proposed by some authors, the growth of the surface fatigue crack was modeled in a roll under loading and temperature conditions that are close to operational ones, taking into account the statistical distribution of the C parameter of Paris' equation. Dependencies of the continuous casting machines roll fatigue lifetime on the initial defect shape and critical defect sizes are obtained.