Methods and Tools of Seismic Risk Assessment and Reduction. Overview

Questions related to accidents prevention based on non-destructive control of critical defects, functioning dangerous technical systems with high wear levels, as well as to substantiation of measures for step-by-step risk mitigation of the specified systems after their stop have been considered. For security upgrade relating to operation of potentially dangerous technical systems under resources restrictions are applied measures for prevention of accidents, mainly, the non-destructive control (NDC) of these systems technical condition without their stop. So, complexes of NDC-methods are applied for fault detection of functioning long distance pipe lines and industrial chimneys. The defects elimination process, and recovery works on the stopped idle systems can be considered as stage-by-stage risk management implementation. With increase of specified measures’ costs the accidents damage risk mitigation is reached. At the same time modified to year expenses representing the sum of presented expenditures related to risk mitigation measures and the presented accidents damage at some cost value for risk mitigation take up minimum value. Further expenses level increase with minimum cost is not compensated by the level of prevented damage. Searching of the specified expenses level for accidents risk mitigation with minimum cost is an optimization problem on minimization of the modified to year risky expenses. In this work has been offered a risk management algorithm scheme at operation of such potentially dangerous technical system as a functioning industrial reinforced concrete flue.

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Taking into Account the Initial Signs of Critical Degradation of a Chimney in the Analysis of the Risk of Its Destruction

Akat’ev¹,

Volkova²,

Тюрин³

et al. 2019

Safety in Technosphere

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The analysis of the dynamics of the corrosion processes of the lining and concrete trunk of the chimney, depending on the operating conditions and climatic conditions, reveals the conditions for the formation of initial cracks in the lining, the dynamics of their growth, it is shown that, with a density of hair cracks of 10 pieces on an area of 0.5 m2, so permeable that the rates of local corrosion processes of lining and concrete materials create an excessive risk of destruction of the chimney. Especially quickly the degradation processes the chimney is exposed at a point about one-third of the top at gas velocities below 10 and above 20 m/s. Excessive permeability of the lining as an additional critical defect is suggested to be taken into account in the composition of critical defects in the traditional classification of their hazards, and its identification is to be based on the results of recognition of defects in photographs obtained by monitoring the chimney with an autonomous device — by the parameter “exceeding the density of cracks by opening width 1 mm and more than 10 pieces on an area of 0.5 m2. At the same time, in the analysis of the risk of destruction of the chimney, the event tree is complemented by the fourth branch, which means the emergence of a critical defect — excessive permeability of gases through the lining. In addition, the lengths of cracks in the lining and concrete trunk are referred to the diameter of the pipe, which makes the classification more universal.

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Methods and Tools of Seismic Risk Assessment and Reduction. Overview

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Methods of operational forecasting and proactive earthquake alerts

Methods of operational forecasting and proactive earthquake alerts

Risk Management at Operation of Dangerous Technical Systems on the Basis of Non-Destructive Control

Taking into Account the Initial Signs of Critical Degradation of a Chimney in the Analysis of the Risk of Its Destruction

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