Methodology to evaluate the monetary benefit of Probabilistic Risk Assessment by modeling the net value of Risk-Informed Applications at nuclear power plants

Pence, Justin; Abolhelm, Marzieh; Mohaghegh, Zahra; Reihani, Seyed; Ertem, Mehmet; Kee, Ernie

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.002

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Our article is closely related to Pence et al. (), who measure the monetary value of PRA with industry data. Our focus is on the early developments of PRA when it may have had the largest impact.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

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Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry

2019

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Low-probability, high-impact events are difficult to manage. Firms may underinvest in risk assessments for low-probability, high-impact events because it is not easy to link the direct and indirect benefits of doing so. Scholarly research on the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing such events faces the same challenge. In this article, we draw on comprehensive industry-wide data from the U.S. nuclear power industry to explore the impact of conducting probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on preventing safety-related disruptions. We examine this using data from over 25,000 monthly event reports across 101 U.S. nuclear reactors from 1985 to 1998. Using Poisson fixed effects models with time trends, we find that the number of safety-related disruptions reduced between 8% and 27% per month in periods after operators submitted their PRA in response to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Generic Letter 88-20, which required all operators to conduct a PRA. One possible mechanism for this is that the adoption of PRA may have increased learning rates, lowering the rate of recurring events by 42%. We find that operators that completed their PRA before Generic Letter 88-20 continued to experience safety improvements during 1990-1995. This suggests that revisiting PRA or conducting it again can be beneficial. Our results suggest that even in a highly safety-conscious industry as nuclear utilities, a more formal approach to quantifying risk has its benefits.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Second, the focus of PRA is on modeling and quantifying risks, not on improving operations. Yet, some argue that the benefits of PRA can go beyond producing a numerical assessment of risk (Apostolakis, ; Pence et al., ). There are potential cost savings benefits from PRA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry

2019

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“…Another example is studies on benefit evaluation of risk-informed applications, such as (Pence, et al, 2018) in which completion times of NPP equipment were adopted as a common ground-extension of completion times, if with risk (a PRA output) still falling below risk threshold, could help avoid plant shutdowns and associated production losses as well as bringing regulatory cost savings (EIA outputs).…”

Section: Literature Survey and Research Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

Zhang

et al. 2020

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This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors' safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization.One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.In the BWR ATF SBO analysis, nine SBO scenarios were developed and analyzed using Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program 5-3D (RELAP5-3D) for thermal hydraulic analysis with traditional fuel design and near-term ATF designs. Due to the spectral shift operations of BWRs, the axial power shapes tend to be bottom peaked near the beginning-of-the-cycle (BOC), cosine shaped in the middle-ofthe-cycle (MOC), and top-peaked in the end of the...

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“…Figure 14 shows the various possible scenarios that may happen during maintenance. 8 Maintenance may be planned or unplanned due to unpredicted faults discovered during routine testing or online monitoring. Both scenarios may require a completion time exceeding AOT.…”

Section: Flex Equipment In Refueling Outage Maintenancementioning

confidence: 99%

Utilizing FLEX Equipment for O&M Cost Reduction in Nuclear Power Plants

Yadav

Biersdorf

2019

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Economic or financial causes have led to closure or announcement of early retirement of several United States (U.S.) nuclear reactors in the last five years. The published report, "Economic and Market Challenges Facing the U.S. Nuclear Commercial Fleet-Cost and Revenue Study," by Idaho National Laboratory identified that 63 of the 79 studied nuclear power plants (NPPs) lost money in the year 2016. The revenue-gap analysis performed in the study also concluded that additional revenue is required to return most of these nuclear power units to profitable operations. This can be achieved by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs that account for about 70% of total operating expenditures for an NPP. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program conducts research and development, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, that provide a technical foundation for licensing and managing the long-term safe and economical operation of current NPPs, utilizing the unique capabilities of the national laboratory system. Reduction in O&M costs aligns with the LWRS program's mission of providing science-based solutions to the nuclear industry to implement technology and methodologies for safe, efficient, and economical long-term operation.

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Methodology to evaluate the monetary benefit of Probabilistic Risk Assessment by modeling the net value of Risk-Informed Applications at nuclear power plants

Cited by 11 publications

References 14 publications

Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry

Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

Utilizing FLEX Equipment for O&M Cost Reduction in Nuclear Power Plants

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