Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change

Stella, Tommaso; Webber, Heidi; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ruane, Alex C.; Fronzek, Stefan; Bregaglio, Simone; Mamidanna, Sravya; Bindi, Marco; Collins, Brian; Faye, Babacar; Ferrise, Roberto; Fodor, Nándor; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Jabloun, Mohamed; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Lizaso, Jon; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Manceau, Loïc; Martre, Pierre; Nendel, Claas; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruiz‐Ramos, Margarita; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Ewert, Frank

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The most common approach to model budburst, flowering, or other stages is the classical growing degree days (GDD, growing degree days) model [3,5,8]; however, authors are constantly seeking alternative approaches to numerically assess frost risk [10,11,26,27]. One example of an approach by Swiss researchers [5] is to combine the growing degree day model with the estimation of frost risk by calculating the safety margin, which is the time interval between the predicted last flowering day and the last day of spring frost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frost Risk Assessment in Slovenia in the Period of 1981–2020

et al. 2023

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As spring frost proves to be an increasing risk throughout Slovenia and Europe, a better assessment of frost risk is needed. The statistical approach presented in this article consists of the conditional probability that the last spring frost occurs before budburst or flowering. The analysis was conducted using two separate phenological models and phenological data of various grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), apple (Malus domestica), and sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) varieties in locations across Slovenia. The increase in risk of spring frost for grapevine ranged from 1 to 1980, from 0.06 to 12 for apple, and from 1 to 180 for sweet cherry. Overall, the varieties most prone to frost proved to be Refošk (Teran) and Merlot grapevine varieties as well as the Germersdorf sweet cherry variety. We have identified the location in the hilly region with moderate climate where the Bobovec apple variety is grown as the least exposed to frost. Although counterintuitive, the GDD generally proved somewhat more efficient than the two-phase phenological model BRIN, although not in all cases. For the purpose of the study, the phenological models were calibrated, and the model parameters can serve as invaluable information for further research of this topic.

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