Methodology for Maritime Risk Assessment in Ports due to Meteo‐oceanographic Factors: The Case of the port of Suape, Brazil

Abstract

Exploring the effects of meteo‐oceanographic (MO) events on ships’ maneuverability and safety has great potential, since most maritime accidents occur in confined waters, where the speed of ships is low, and the forces of wind and current on ships have particular importance. Therefore, we put forward a methodology that will be used to qualify and classify the risks caused by MO factors to how ships maneuver, dock or undock in a port. The objective is to generate important information for managing risk. The methodology is validated and illustrated step‐by‐step by applying it in Suape, one of the most important ports in Brazil, where the docking of larger tankers (e.g., Suezmax) was not allowed until recently when dredging was done to fit the specifications of such ships, thereby expanding the port's operations. MO data on Suape were collected and recorded from September 2016 to November 2017 and used for the application. Based on expert opinion and discussion with a Suape pilot, 36 accidental scenarios (ASs) were identified and categorized using preliminary hazard analysis. From these, the seven most severe ASs were selected so as to assess in more detail the frequency and consequences of accidents on human health, the environment, and property, for which the MO statistics for the likelihood of an accident and/or dispersal of an oil spill were used. The results show that the methodology is viable to assess risks caused by bad weather and to communicate these to pilots and competent authorities, thus improving the safety of operations.

Temporal monitoring of contamination in three sandy beaches from the 2019 oil spill near Cabo de Santo Agostinho, Northeastern Brazil

“…The prevailing winds are seasonal and regular from the ESE-NNE direction approximately 90% of the time, with a mean speed varying from 3 to 5 m.s -1 (Manso et al 2018, Azevêdo et al 2021. Tidal behavior in the region is mesotidal and semidiurnal, with a mean amplitude ranging from 0.7 m to 2.0 m (Schettini et al 2016).…”

“…Between January and April, the maximum significant wave heights remain below 2 m, mainly in the NE-ENE direction. From May to August, they remain above 2 m (Manso et al 2018), with wave periods from 5.4 to 14.8 s and have a predominant E, ESE and SE direction, influenced by the South Atlantic Polar Anticyclone cold front (Holanda et al 2020, Azevêdo et al 2021.…”

Research on classification and navigational risk factors of intelligent ship

“…Chen et al [9] selected the data of Marine accidents occurring in 16 ship types and 13 major navigation areas in the world from 1998 to 2018, and identified the main factors causing Marine accidents based on the improved entropy weight method and the approximate ideal solution ranking method, so as to build its evaluation index system. Besides, many other scholars have adopted many methods to identify and evaluate risks through expert questionnaire [10], historical navigation accident data mining [1], hierarchical holographic modeling framework and risk filtering, rating and management [11], multidimensional analysis of accident causes [12], risk classification and ranking based on Marine meteorological conditions [13], Bayesian belief network [14] and other methods. The construction of risk identification and risk evaluation index provides the basic framework support for the corresponding risk evaluation.…”