Methodology for determining the probability of optical fiber failure as a function of current operating time

Abstract

Since 1993 more than 2.2 billion km of optical fiber have been laid all over the world. Typically, the lifetime of optical fiber prescribed by technical conditions does not exceed 25 years. Therefore, determining the suitability of an optical cable for further operation after the designated lifetime of an optical cable is currently an urgent task, having great national economic importance. The paper considers the dependence of the failure probability on the applied voltage and raises the question of the feasibility of using a two-stage model of optical fiber failure when modeling.