Methodological Tools for Assessing Employment and Income of Rural Population under Unpredictable Conditions

Abstract

Introduction. The modern Russian economy is facing serious problems in the field of labor resources, which leads to high unemployment and low wages. The development of effective solutions requires conducting evidence-based programs, including actions at the enterprise level, the regional labor market and the national level. The options offered to date by various researchers for assessing the employment and income of the rural population are characterized by an aspect and a lack of an integrated approach. Insufficient attention is paid to the integration of estimates, as well as the development of forecast values based on the expected dynamics of stochastic factors. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing the employment of the rural population in the production of beekeeping products. Methods. The state and dynamics of the beekeeping industry development was analyzed on the example of the Perm Region. The study of indicators for assessing the employment level of the rural population included the effect of stochastic factors. The uncertainty influence was accounted by the use of correlation and regression analysis and a multidimensional model. The development of a population assessment methodology was based on the method of mathematical modeling. Results. The influence percentage of stochastic factors on changes in the employment level of the economically active population and the complex impact indicator of factors on the of employment level and incomes of the rural population of the Perm Territory were calculated with a forecast for 5 years. Conclusions. The proposed approach will make it possible to more effectively monitor the trends and dynamics of beekeeping development, which will further help to develop effective support measures for this industry.