Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition

Abstract

Current estimates of terrestrial bird losses across Europe from ingestion of lead ammunition are based on uncertain or generic assumptions. A method is needed to develop defensible European-specific estimates compatible with available data that does not require long-term field studies. We propose a 2-step method using carcass data and population models. The method estimates percentage of deaths diagnosed as directly caused by lead poisoning as a lower bound and, as an upper bound, the percentage of possible deaths from sublethal lead poisoning that weakens birds, making them susceptible to death by other causes. We use these estimates to modify known population-level annual mortality. Our method also allows for potential reductions in reproduction from lead shot ingestion because reductions in survival and reproduction are entered into population models of species with life histories representative of the most groups of susceptible species. The models estimate the sustainability and potential population decreases from lead poisoning in Europe. Using the best available data, we demonstrate the method on two taxonomic groups of birds: gallinaceous birds and diurnal raptors. The direction of the population trends affects the estimate, and we incorporated such trends into the method. Our midpoint estimates of the reduction in population size of the European gallinaceous bird (< 2%) group and raptor group (2.9–7.7%) depend on the species life history, maximum growth rate, population trend, and if reproduction is assumed to be reduced. Our estimates can be refined as more information becomes available in countries with data gaps. We advocate use of this method to improve upon or supplement approaches currently being used. As we demonstrate, the method also can be applied to individual species of concern if enough data across countries are available.

Wildlife ecological risk assessment in the 21st century: Promising technologies to assess toxicological effects

“…Such linkages are sometimes revealed by pairing laboratory and field results such that sublethal effects can be quantified in a DR curve. Alternatively, empirical site data on the percentage of deaths due to the contaminant based on necropsies and ancillary data findings (e.g., histologic lesions and contaminant residues) might be used to estimate changes in survival to create the unimpacted scenario (Hanley et al, 2022;Meyer et al, 2016Meyer et al, , 2022Slabe et al, 2022). After the linkage is created, the population model that relates the nonstandard endpoint to survival or reproduction can quantify key population-level endpoints.…”