Method for Forecasting Electric Consumption for Household Users in the Conditions of the Republic of Tajikistan

Abstract

In the work, a method is proposed that allows predicting electricity consumption by household consumers in the terrain of the Republic of Tajikistan. To take into account the factor features of the terrain of the cities of the Republic of Tajikistan, a coefficient is proposed that characterizes the terrain conditions depending on the temperatures and the difference in the heights of the cities above the sea level. The adequacy of the proposed method for predicting electricity consumption by household consumers is presented in the form of dependences of annual electricity consumption schedules obtained by calculation and experimental methods.

Improving Energy Efficiency by Household Consumers in the Republic of Tajikistan Based on the Developed Forecasting Method

“…Based on the results shown in Figures 1-4, we present the results of comparing the standard values of the specific load [19,20] corresponding to the number of household consumers. These dependencies, presented in the form of histograms ( Figures 5, 6), allow showing a real picture of the compliance of regulatory data with the measurement results, which, in turn, will allow us to assess the degree of energy efficiency of the considered household consumers and assume their influence on the operating parameters of urban electrical networks 10 / 0.4 kV.…”

Estimation Method of the State of 6-10 kV Distribution Network

“…Thus, when developing a methodology for assessing the state of the elements of the 6-10 kV distribution network in Dushanbe, which allows assessing the degree of reliability indicators of the 6-10 kV distribution network, it is necessary to take into account such factors as: increased power consumption [12][13][14][15] and climatic and meteorological conditions of the area.…”

Method for Projecting Household Electricity Consumption in the Republic of Tajikistan

“…Задание одинаковой удельной нагрузки для бытового сектора согласно [1] для всей РТ не является корректным. Общеизвестно, что при неправильном установлении удельных нагрузок и проектировании систем электроснабжения по этим нормам происходит увеличение потерь электроэнергии [1][2][3][4], а в дальнейшем и уменьшение сроков работы элементов схем электроснабжения.…”

“…Теоретическая часть С целью регулирования режимных параметров городских электрических сетей оперативнодиспетчерской службой в работе предлагается метод прогнозирования электропотребления для бытовых потребителей в условиях Республики Таджикистан (РТ) на основе уравнений с учётом коэффициента времени максимума нагрузок -, полученного для различных городов РТ [3,21] и имеющего функциональную зависимость: ,…”