Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China

Abstract

Background: As an emerging infectious disease, the prevention and control of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a significant challenge to the development of public health in China. In this study, we aimed to explore the mechanism of the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD and to reveal the correlation and potential path between key meteorological factors and the transmissibility of HFMD.Methods: Combined with daily meteorological data such as average temperature, average relative humidity, average wind velocity, amount of precipitation, average air pressure, evaporation capacity, and sunshine duration, a database of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was established. Spearman rank correlation was used to calculate the correlation between the various meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD. The effective reproduction number (Reff) of HFMD was used as an intermediate variable to further quantify the dynamic relationship between the average temperature and Reff.Results: A total of 43,659 cases of HFMD were reported in Xiamen from 2014 to 2018. There was a significantly positive correlation between the average temperature and the incidence of HFMD (r = 0.596, p < 0.001), and a significantly negative correlation between the average air pressure and the incidence of HFMD (r = −0.511, p < 0.001). There was no correlation between the average wind velocity (r = 0.045, p > 0.05) or amount of precipitation (r = 0.043, p > 0.05) and incidence. There was a temperature threshold for HFMD's transmissibility. Owing to the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD in Xiamen, the temperature threshold of HFMD's transmissibility was 13.4–18.4°C and 14.5–29.3°C in spring and summer and in autumn and winter, respectively.Conclusions: HFMD's transmissibility may be affected by the average temperature; the temperature threshold range of transmissibility in autumn and winter is slightly wider than that in spring and summer. Based on our findings, we suggest that the relevant epidemic prevention departments should pay close attention to temperature changes in Xiamen to formulate timely prevention strategies before the arrival of the high-risk period.

Control measures during the COVID-19 outbreak reduced the transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

“…Our previous studies showed that the SIR model could be employed to simulate the weekly incidence data of HFMD 15 , 18 , 19 , and the SEIAR model could be adopted to simulate the daily data of the disease 16 , 20 , 21 . In this study, the SEIAR model was developed because the daily incidence data of HFMD were used.…”

“…The parameter β was time-basic and was estimated by curve fitting the model to the reported data in the six cities. We set k = 1, p = 0•4423, ω = 0•2, γ = 0•5, and γ’= 0•0476, according to our previous researches 16 , 20 . The range of the fatality rate was 0•0001–0•0005 22 , 23 , 24 , with a median of 0•0003; therefore, f= 003%.…”

“…Based on our previous studies 16 , 20 , the effective reproduction number ( R eff ) was employed to quantify the transmissibility of HFMD and was calculated using the following equation: …”

Meteorological factors and tick density affect the dynamics of SFTS in jiangsu province, China

“…The transmission dynamics model uses the real natural history and reported data of the disease to model, which can simulate the true transmission state of the disease [ 13 – 15 ]. Some researchers have established a seasonal transmission dynamics model of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), and explored meteorological factors and morbidity and transmissibility the relationship between the two has initially revealed the "black box" problem of the spread of HFMD [ 16 ]. In the previous research, we also established the first SFTS multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MMDM) [ 17 ], by fitting the real SFTS report data of Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2019 through the model, and calculating the infection rate coefficients of the four transmission routes (human-to-human transmission, tick-to-human transmission, environment-to-human transmission and host animal-to-human transmission over time, which are human-to-human respectively infection rate coefficient ( β 1 ), tick-to-human infection rate coefficient ( β 21 ), environment-to-human infection rate coefficient ( β w1 ) and host animal-to-human infection rate coefficient ( β 31 ).…”

Analysis of the Complete Genomes of Enterovirus 71 Subtypes in China

“…Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease that manifests as mouth pain, anorexia, lowgrade fever, and small sores or ulcers on the hand, foot, and mouth. Children under the age of five are susceptible to HFMD [1]. Most patients recover spontaneously within a week, but a few cases can cause serious complications, such as myocarditis, pulmonary oedema, and aseptic meningoencephalitis [2].…”