Meteorological factors and respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in subtropical Australia

Morley, Carla; Grimwood, Keith; Maloney, Samuel; Ware, Robert S.

doi:10.1017/s0950268818000614

Cited by 26 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…In temperate climates, RSV detection rates were positively associated with relative humidity. 16,18,21 However, some studies undertaken in tropical and subtropical areas have found a positive association with relative humidity, 12,22,23 while others have found a negative association. 11,20,24 Based on the LASSO model, we found that the RSV detection rate was higher when average relative humidity was low.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time‐series analysis

Zhang

Wen

Zheng

et al. 2020

Pediatric Pulmonology

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Introduction Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is a major cause of hospitalization in children. Meteorological factors are known to influence seasonal RSV epidemics, but the relationship between meteorological factors and RSV infection in children is not well understood. We aimed to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and RSV infections among hospitalized children, using different statistical models. Methods We conducted a retrospective review concerning children with RSV infections admitted to a tertiary pediatric hospital in Wenzhou, China, between January 2008 and December 2017. The relationship between meteorological factors (average daily temperatures, average daily relative humidity, rainfall, rainfall days, and wind speed) and the incidence of RSV in hospitalized children was analyzed using three time‐series models, namely an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a generalized additive model (GAM), and a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)‐based model. Results In total, 15 858 (17.6%) children tested positive for RSV infection. The ARIMA model revealed a marked seasonal pattern in the RSV detection rate, which peaked in winter and spring. The model was a good predictor of RSV incidence (R2: 83.5%). The GAM revealed that a lower temperature and higher wind speed preceded increases in RSV detection. The LASSO‐based model revealed that temperature and relative humidity were negatively correlated with RSV detection. Conclusions Seasonality of RSV infection in hospitalized children correlated strongly with temperature. The LASSO‐based model can be used to predict annual RSV epidemics using weather forecast data.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time‐series analysis

Zhang

Wen

Zheng

et al. 2020

Pediatric Pulmonology

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“…However, a shift in the HRSV epidemic season to summer periods (from June-August) has been reported in Japan more recently [4]. Although many previous studies looked at the association between HRSV cases and meteorological conditions [3,[5][6][7][8][9][10][11], there may well be other factors that determine the onset week of HRSV epidemic season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifts in the epidemic season of human respiratory syncytial virus associated with inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions in Japan, 2014–2017: An ecological study

et al. 2021

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Few studies have examined the effects of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions on the shift in human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) season in Japan. This study aims to test whether the number of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions are associated with the onset week of HRSV epidemic season. The estimation of onset week for 46 prefectures (except for Okinawa prefecture) in Japan for 4-year period (2014–2017) was obtained from previous papers based on the national surveillance data. We obtained data on the yearly number of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological (yearly mean temperature and relative humidity) conditions from Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), respectively. Multi-level mixed-effects linear regression analysis showed that every 1 person (per 100,000 population) increase in number of overall inbound overseas travelers led to an earlier onset week of HRSV epidemic season in the year by 0.02 week (coefficient –0.02; P<0.01). Higher mean temperature and higher relative humidity were also found to contribute to an earlier onset week by 0.30 week (coefficient –0.30; P<0.05) and 0.18 week (coefficient –0.18; P<0.01), respectively. Additionally, models that included the number of travelers from individual countries (Taiwan, South Korea, and China) except Australia showed that both the number of travelers from each country and meteorological conditions contributed to an earlier onset week. Our analysis showed the earlier onset week of HRSV epidemic season in Japan is associated with increased number of inbound overseas travelers, higher mean temperature, and relative humidity. The impact of international travelers on seasonality of HRSV can be further extended to investigations on the changes of various respiratory infectious diseases especially after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

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“…Seasonality is a feature of many infectious diseases of public health importance and is characterized by case number surges corresponding to predictable calendar periods or some other time related pattern . Annual peaks in influenza, meningococcal disease and pneumonia are well known to result from a complex interplay between host, pathogen and environment with temperature, air quality and relative humidity playing a critical role . Recently, a growing body of literature has come to suggest that post‐operative orthopaedic infections may exhibit seasonal oscillations peaking at times of higher temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between higher ambient temperature and orthopaedic infection rates: a systematic review and meta‐analysis

Vickers

Pelecanos

Tran

et al. 2019

ANZ Journal of Surgery

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Introduction: Many infectious diseases display seasonal variation corresponding with particular conditions. In orthopaedics a growing body of evidence has identified surges in postoperative infection rates during higher temperature periods. The aim of this research was to collate and synthesize the current literature on this topic. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using five databases (PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science and Central (Cochrane)). Study quality was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation method. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated from monthly infection rates and a pooled OR was generated using the DerSimonian and Lairds method. A protocol for this review was registered with the National Institute for Health Research International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42017081871). Results: Eighteen studies analysing over 19 000 cases of orthopaedic related infection met inclusion criteria. Data on 6620 cases and 9035 controls from 12 studies were included for meta-analysis. The pooled OR indicated an overall increased odds of post-operative infection for patients undergoing orthopaedic procedures during warmer periods of the year (pooled OR 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.30). Conclusion: A small but significantly increased odds of post-operative infection may exist for orthopaedic patients who undergo procedures during higher temperature periods. It is hypothesized that this effect is geographically dependent and confounded by meteorological factors, local cultural variables and hospital staffing cycles.

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Meteorological factors and respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in subtropical Australia

Cited by 26 publications

References 33 publications

Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time‐series analysis

Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time‐series analysis

Shifts in the epidemic season of human respiratory syncytial virus associated with inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions in Japan, 2014–2017: An ecological study

Association between higher ambient temperature and orthopaedic infection rates: a systematic review and meta‐analysis

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