Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios

Abstract

Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico (i.e., the studied area), where the mean annual precipitation (MAP) is less than 500 mm, have suffered even more from droughts in the past. The aim of this study was to conduct a meteorological drought analysis of the available MAP data (1950-2013) from 649 meteorological stations selected from the studied area and to predict the drought features under the different IPCC-prescribed climate change scenarios. To determine the long-term drought features, we collected 1×10 4 synthetic samples using the periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) model for each rainfall series. The simulations first consider the present prevailing precipitation conditions (i.e., the average from 1950 to 2013) and then the precipitation anomalies under IPCC-prescribed RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario. The results indicated that the climate changes under the prescribed scenarios would significantly increase the duration and intensity of droughts. The most severe impacts may occur in the central plateau and in the Baja California Peninsula. Thus, it will be necessary to establish adequate protective measures for the sustainable management of water resources in these regions.

Estimation of meteorological drought indices based on AgMERRA precipitation data and station-observed precipitation data

“…Precipitation deficits over an extended period can be devastating to human life and health, water resources, and economies and are commonly described as meteorological droughts (Yu et al, 2013). Meteorological drought is characterized by lack of precipitation over weeks, months, or years (Heim, 2002;Potop et al, 2014;Escalante-Sandoval and Nuñez-Garcia, 2017). Monitoring meteorological drought is a vital and important part of drought risk mitigation (Li et al, 2017) on a global scale (WMO, 2013;Li et al, 2014).…”

Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran

“…This study investigates the impact of climate change on drought over a long-term scale, which is necessary to diminish vulnerability and establish suitable innovation strategies for drought mitigation and preparedness. Drought is a significant natural stochastic hazard that arises from a considerable deficiency in precipitation (Gao and Zhang, 2016), which can have devastating impacts on the regional agriculture, water resources and environment (Sternberg, 2011;Escalante-Sandoval andNuñez-Garcia, 2017, Salehnia et al, 2017b), causing extensive damage and affect a large number of people. Droughts and floods are extreme climate events that percentage-wise are likely to change more rapidly than the mean climate (Trenberth et al, 2003).…”

An Integrated Approach to Determining the Capacity of Ecosystems to Supply Ecosystem Services into Life Cycle Assessment for a Carbon Capture System

“…In the Mexican O&G industry (PEMEX), the CHP plants that cover the middle and high steam and electricity demands of gas processing, oil refinery, and petrochemical processes are suitable for reducing fossil fuel consumption and CO 2 [3]. However, on the supply side, the CHP plants face water supply competition between different users and sectors as well as moderate and severe water scarcity due to changes in land use in the middle and north of the country [4,5], which could affect their operations.…”