Meteorological drought analysis using multi-scalar SPEI and Copula theory for Jaisalmer district of Rajasthan, India

Abstract

Drought is a natural disaster of creeping phenomenon which is difficulty to understand. This study utilizes multi-scalar SPEI and copula theory to analyze the meteorological drought in Jaisalmer district of Rajasthan, India. Several marginal distributions are fitted to drought duration and severity. Archimedean and Metaelliptical copulas are used to construct the bivariate probability distributions. The univariate and bivariate return periods are calculated to identify the associate drought risks. The results of this study can provide effective information for the study area to assess drought risk and contribute to the decisionmaking process to reduce the associated risks. This can result in optimizing the allocation of water resources and reduce the impact of drought on the Jaisalmer district in the future.