Meteorological Drivers of European Power System Stress

Bloomfield, Hannah; Suitters, Charlie; Drew, Daniel R.

doi:10.1155/2020/5481010

Cited by 22 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The data is available from the Reading Research and Data Repository ( http:dx.doi.org/10.17864/1947.227) and it has been used in previous studies (Bloomfield et al, 2019a(Bloomfield et al, , 2020. In the following section, we briefly summarise the methods used for the weather-to-energy conversion data.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The capacity factors (expressed in %) obtained from both wind and solar power models were used to calculate the daily national wind and solar power production, for which we used as the baseline the installed capacity of wind and solar corresponding to 2017 (for each country) (Bloomfield et al, 2019a(Bloomfield et al, , 2020.…”

Section: Wind and Solar Powermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…shorter daylight hours and reduced incoming solar radiation resulting in decreasing solar power generation) and weather patterns (e.g. persistent high-pressure systems associated with below normal wind speed that lead to decreasing wind power generation, Bloomfield et al, 2020;Raynaud et al, 2018). The ED of individual sources, more specifically the ED of solar and demand-net-solar are considerable shorter in summer than in winter due to their seasonality (i.e.…”

Section: Frequency Analysis Of Edmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A copula-based assessment of renewable energy droughts across Europe

Otero¹,

Martius²,

Allen³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Meeting carbon-reduction targets will require thorough consideration of climate variability and climate change due to the increasing share of climate-sensitive renewable energy sources (RES). One of the main concerns arises from situations of low renewable production and high demand, which can hinder the power system. We analysed energy droughts, defined as periods of low energy production (wind plus solar generation) or high residual load (demand minus production), in terms of two main properties: duration and severity. We estimated the joint return periods associated with energy droughts of residual load and power production. We showed that moderate winter energy droughts of both low renewable production and high residual load occur every half a year, while summer events occur every 3.6 and 2.4 years (on average). As expected, the occurrence of energy droughts tends to decrease with the degree of the severity of the energy drought, and moderate and extreme energy droughts showed longer return period for most countries. In general, we found a large variability across Europe in summer, with some countries (e.g. Italy) being more sensitive to energy droughts. Our results highlight the relevance of sharing RES during prolonged periods of low production and high demand.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Wind and Solar Powermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Frequency Analysis Of Edmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A copula-based assessment of renewable energy droughts across Europe

Otero¹,

Martius²,

Allen³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Recent studies have also used atmospheric reanalyses to establish the key weather patterns that drive winds and wind power generation in the country and Europe (e.g., Bloomfield, Brayshaw, & Charlton-Perez, 2020a;Bloomfield, Suitters, & Drew, 2020b;Collins et al, 2018;Grams et al, 2017;van der Wiel et al, 2019) and are thus dependent on the ability of the reanalysis to accurately reproduce both large-and small-scale meteorological patterns. To look at higher-resolution wind power patterns, Gonz alez- Aparicio et al (2017) downscaled the MERRA reanalysis over Europe.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How well do atmospheric reanalyses reproduce observed winds in coastal regions of Mexico?

Thomas

Nicolau

Martínez‐Alvarado

et al. 2021

Meteorological Applications

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Atmospheric reanalyses are widely used for understanding the past and present climate. They have become increasingly used within the renewable energy sector for assessing wind and solar resources for different regions of the globe in conjunction with observations. Mexico is a country with considerable potential for wind energy production, especially around coastal sites and therefore the characterization of wind resource in these areas of the country is imperative for the most beneficial use of these resources. In this study, we assess how well three global reanalyses, namely ERA-Interim, ERA5 and MERRA-2, can reproduce wind observations at a number of key sites across the country. We find that the reanalyses' ability to reproduce these observations is highly variable between different regions in Mexico. Correlation coefficients are around 0.9 in the south of the country where the winds are strongest, but much lower (around 0.5) in Baja California Sur due to the complex coastal topography of the region. ERA5 outperforms ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 consistently across the vast majority of sites and so this reanalysis is recommended for local wind power studies. The consistently improved performance compared with ERA-Interim shows the value of the increased spatial resolution of ERA5. However, in the south and east of Mexico, despite having the highest correlations, ERA5 also has the largest bias, meaning that it underestimates winds consistently across most of the country. Poor correlations between ERA5 and the observations in Veracruz are considered as a case study to understand potential drivers of low wind biases.

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“…At high renewable energy penetrations, weather events that are important to the electric system will not just be those producing extreme loads and stressing traditional generators but will also include those that produce a large surplus or deficit in renewable energy resource availability. A number of recent studies in Europe (Bloomfield, Suitters, and Drew 2020;Li et al 2020) and the U.S. (Handshcy, Rose, and Apt 2016;Cole, Greer, and Lamb 2020) have investigated the weather events and frequency of these events that may pose supply deficits in a high renewable energy system. In addition to the evolving nature of weather risks to the electric system that will come from increased amounts of variable renewable energy (VRE), climate change is also changing the nature of weather risk, and its impact will be amplified and compounded by the energy transition.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%