Meteorological and Hydrological Influences on the Spatial and Temporal Prevalence of West Nile Virus in &lt;I&gt;Culex&lt;/I&gt; Mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York

Shaman, Jeffrey; Harding, K.; Campbell, Scott R.

doi:10.1603/me10269

Cited by 25 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Thus, when increased temperatures and decreased precipitation totals co-occur, as experienced during the 2010 season, it results in epizootic levels of transmission, as seen in both our local and regional analyses. This is a similar conclusion to that of Shaman et al (2011) who reported that drier early summer conditions during the months of June and July were associated with increases in WNV among Culex vectors in Long Island, NY.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Drought-Induced Amplification of Local and Regional West Nile Virus Infection Rates in New Jersey

Johnson

Sukhdeo

2013

J Med Entomol

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This study looked at the influence of interannual variations in temperature and precipitation on seasonal mosquito abundances, the prevalence of West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, WNV) in the northeastern United States, and the capacity for local mosquito communities to maintain and transmit WNV, defined as vector community competence. Vector and virus surveillance took place within Middlesex County in New Jersey over two transmission seasons (2010 and 2011). Drought conditions during the 2010 season were associated with significant increases in the number of blood-fed Culex spp. mosquitoes collected per week, and significant increases in vector community competence, or the ability of local vector communities to transmit WNV, when compared with the wetter and milder 2011 season. These increases were associated with significantly higher weekly WNV infection rates in Culex spp. (i.e., Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans L.) during the 2010 drought season. On a larger scale, the positive influence of drought on the amplification of WNV was also confirmed at the state level where early seasonal (June-July) increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation were strongly correlated with increases in yearly WNV infection rates over a 9-yr period (2003-2011). These data suggest that there may be clear temperature and precipitation thresholds beyond which epidemic levels of WNV transmission occur.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Drought-Induced Amplification of Local and Regional West Nile Virus Infection Rates in New Jersey

Johnson

Sukhdeo

2013

J Med Entomol

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“…Because climate change is temporally and spatially heterogeneous, the sensitivity of mosquito populations to climate change is dependent on local climatic context. The seasonal timing of precipitation (28,29) and the intensity of events (30) are also important factors mitigating WNV vector population development and infection. Consequently, the impacts on mosquito populations can vary considerably between locations within a region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4). This decline may not decrease WNV transmission risk, however, as it has been suggested that birds and mosquitoes can be forced into greater contact by congregating around scarce water sources serving as mosquito habitat, thereby increasing transmission (28,29). In addition, vector species that rely on more permanent water sources may be less affected by drying conditions and thereby gain a larger role as disease vectors.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change

Morin

Comrie

2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions. disease | insect | ecology P rojections of disease-related climate change impacts are currently limited and constitute a key research priority (1). During its expansion across North America, West Nile virus (WNV) led to major epidemics during the summers of 2002-2004 (2) and is now endemic in most areas. Although host-bird species behavior and viral strain temperature tolerances are critical components of WNV dynamics (2), vector ecology is also a key element of the virus ecology. Although climate and meteorological factors can moderate mosquito vector population dynamics (3, 4) and infection rates (5), the projected impacts of climate change on WNV vectors are not yet known. From a human health perspective, a better understanding of this complex system will facilitate the implementation of more effective control measures and reduce virus transmission to human populations (6).Studies relating climate to the incidence of other mosquitoborne diseases have been performed with varying success for malaria (7-9) and dengue fever (10, 11). The most effective way to study the complex feedbacks and impacts of climate change on vector populations is through dynamic modeling because it resolves some of the limitations associated with empirically based statistical techniques. These limitations include the lack of long-term and continuous mosquito surveillance data and the inappropriate extrapolation of projections from temperature and precipitation combinations outside the bounds of past measurements. Some of these issues, however, still manifest themselves in dynamic modeling because mosquito response to climate variables may change in time and between places as a result of evolutionary pressures. Limited test data from m...

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“…), and increased abundance when a wet winter and spring are followed by a dry summer (Shaman et al. ). In dry summers, birds that serve as reservoir hosts for WNV cluster around eutrophic water sources, exposing them to mosquito carriers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

2017

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Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV, we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed-effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package “R-INLA,” which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two-week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one-week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV, respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness-of-fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.

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Meteorological and Hydrological Influences on the Spatial and Temporal Prevalence of West Nile Virus in <I>Culex</I> Mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York

Cited by 25 publications

References 29 publications

Drought-Induced Amplification of Local and Regional West Nile Virus Infection Rates in New Jersey

Drought-Induced Amplification of Local and Regional West Nile Virus Infection Rates in New Jersey

Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

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