Metapopulation Modeling of Socioeconomic Vulnerability of Sahelian Populations to Climate Variability: Case of Tougou, Village in Northern Burkina Faso

Abstract

Since the droughts of the 1970s–1980s, populations in the Sahel region have opted for a mass exodus to more humid urban or rural centers. Migrations or exoduses have accelerated in recent decades due to environmental degradation and unfavorable climatic conditions. Insufficient harvests are the main reason for migration for the majority of migrants in the Sahelian areas. Migration is a major adaptation strategy to cope with extreme climatic conditions, thus requiring quantification in the destination area. The aim of this paper is to propose a metapopulation model to approximate reality by identifying the transition from one socioeconomic vulnerability group to another, from a less favorable area to favorable area in terms of natural resources, depending on the strategies, policies, and climate variability. The model was used to analyze the dynamics of socioeconomic vulnerability to study the impact of migration on the dynamics of socioeconomic vulnerability. The developed mathematical model was analyzed. Up to 2050, simulations applied to the Tougou village in northern Burkina Faso show that migration has a positive impact on the socioeconomic vulnerability of the destination area, thereby reducing the vulnerability of the population by 10% when resources are increased by up to 30%.