Mesoeconomic Modeling of Structural Shifts of the Us Industry: Industry and Spatial Components

Abstract

The evolution of socio-economic relations, studied in the dynamics of the development of such a phenomenon as structural changes in industry caused by the diffusion of knowledge-intensive technologies of a convergent type, is most consistently revealed within the framework of the mesoeconomic production system of the country level, through appropriate modeling of characteristic objects and processes. The mesoeconomic modeling of the industrial sector of the American economy, which entered a qualitatively new period of reindustrial development a decade ago, seems relevant. The aim of this study is to use elements and modeling systems that meet the requirements of sectoral and regional mesoeconomics to assess the structural shifts that took place in the US industry in the period 2011–2020 under the influence of convergent technologies. To solve this problem, the DEA-method is used, developed and tested by the American scientists and is aimed at calculating the convergent resonance index and the indicator of the comparative efficiency of the objects under study. Based on the results of constructing models of the technological efficiency of the US industry in space-time, oriented to the input and output parameters, an assessment of the structural shifts of the American industry, both sectoral and spatial-regional components of the US mesoeconomic system, is presented. The conclusion is made about the generally successful structural modernization of American industry in the inter-crisis period, characterized as the initial stage of the reindustrial development of the United States on the basis of convergent technologies of the sixth technological order. The problems of the initial stage of American reindustrialization associated with a small increase in industrial production within the framework of the national knowledge economy and the strengthening of structural imbalances in its spatial development are identified. At the same time, a high level of efficiency of modernization of the main industries of the United States in the considered period of time was noted, associated with the active diffusion of convergent technologies.

Modeling the Relationship of Structural Shifts in Industry and the Impact of Exports of High-Tech Products on the Domestic Markets of the United States and China

“…Далее устанавливается взаимосвязь между ценой высокотехнологичной продукции, экспортируемой США и КНР, и ценой их внутренних рынковpx (9), а в завершении моделируется влияние высокотехнологичного экспорта каждой из стран и объемов высокотехнологичного производства глобального экспортера в разрезе соответствующих товарных группqd (10): px = n + n pd + εn (9) qd -qx = n + n qx + βn qg + εn. (10) На последнем этапе устанавливается корректность спецификаций представленных эконометрических моделей, для чего выполняется тест EG-ADF [23], позволяющий нивелировать положение о единичном корне для совокупности рядов, применяемых в уравнениях регрессии (7-10), и перевести значения коэффициентов (1-3), композиционных индикаторов (4-5) и индекса (6) в эффекты, выраженные зависимыми (факторными) переменными.…”