Merging Precaution with Sound Science under the Endangered Species Act

McGarvey, Daniel J.

doi:10.1641/b570110

Cited by 28 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Yet, when dealing with endangered or threatened species, McGarvey argues that a Type I error is preferable to a Type II error, since failure to detect a threat to an endangered species could result in irreversible damage, such as species extinction. 41,42,43,44 In a similar vein, Christoforou claims, ''existing risk assessment methodologies are inherently biased in favor of avoiding overinclusive regulatory measures (i.e., the inclination is to avoid false positives) for fear of imposing undue costs on technological progress and society'' (pp. [34][35].…”

Section: Precautionary Language and Associated Conceptsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precautionary discourse: Thinking through the distinction between the precautionary principle and the precautionary approach in theory and practice

Dinneen

2013

Polit. life sci.

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This paper addresses the distinction, arising from the different ways the European Union and United States have come to adopt precaution regarding various environmental and health-related risks, between the precautionary principle and the precautionary approach in both theory and practice. First, this paper addresses how the precautionary principle has been variously defined, along with an exploration of some of the concepts with which it has been associated. Next, it addresses how the distinction between the precautionary principle and precautionary approach manifested itself within the political realm. Last, it considers the theoretical foundation of the precautionary principle in the philosophy of Hans Jonas, considering whether the principled-pragmatic distinction regarding precaution does or doesn't hold up in Jonas' thought.

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Section: Precautionary Language and Associated Conceptsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precautionary discourse: Thinking through the distinction between the precautionary principle and the precautionary approach in theory and practice

Dinneen

2013

Polit. life sci.

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“…However, from a conservation biology perspective, simplification has been disputed. According with the precautionary principle (Haller 2000;Hanson 2003), to discard the effect of CAD when it does exist (type-II error) is more costly than keeping it in the model (Gray 1990;Buhl-Mortensen 1996;Kriebel et al 2001;McGarvey 2007).…”

Section: Lessons On Model Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying the demographic processes relevant for species conservation in human-impacted areas: does the model matter?

2012

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The identification of the demographic processes responsible for the decline in population growth rate (λ) in disturbed areas would allow conservation efforts to be efficiently directed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are used for this purpose, but it is unclear whether the conclusions drawn from their analysis are sensitive to how functional structures (the functions that describe how survival, growth and fecundity vary with individual size) are selected. We constructed 12 IPMs that differed in their functional structure by combining two reproduction models and three functional expressions (generalized linear, cubic and additive models), each with and without simplification. Models were parameterized with data from two populations of two endangered cacti subject to different disturbance intensities. For each model, we identified the demographic processes that most affected λ in the presence of disturbance. Simulations were performed on artificial data and analyzed as above to assess the generality of the results. In both empirical and simulated data, the same processes were identified as making the largest contribution to changes in λ regardless of the functional structure. The major differences in the results were due to misspecification of the fecundity functions, whilst functional expression and model simplification had lesser effects. Therefore, as long as the demographic attributes of the species are well known and incorporated into the model, IPMs will robustly identify the processes that most affect the growth of populations subject to disturbance, making them a reliable tool for developing conservation strategies.

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“…This challenge is shared by field studies where statistical tests for differences or lack thereof are dependent on the choice of a threshold for a meaningful effect size to test for. These choices are often subjective (McGarvey 2007;Brosi and Bilber 2009;Munkittrick et al 2009). The benefit for risk management of quantitative modeling is that metrics such as projected population trajectories, expected minimum abundances, risks of quasi-extinction and chances of recovery are in a currency that more closely relates to narrative policy requirements such as to "not appreciably reduce the likelihood of the survival and recovery of the species in the wild" than either the original effects, such as reduced juvenile growth measured in a laboratory, or exceedences of criteria or effects benchmarks.…”

Section: Risk Interpretation and Communicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extrapolating Growth Reductions in Fish to Changes in Population Extinction Risks: Copper and Chinook Salmon

Mebane

Arthaud

2010

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal

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Fish commonly respond to stress, including stress from chemical exposures, with reduced growth. However, the relevance to wild populations of subtle and sometimes transitory growth reductions may not be obvious. At low-level, sustained exposures, Cu is one substance that commonly causes reduced growth but little mortality in laboratory toxicity tests with fish. To explore the relevance of growth reductions under laboratory conditions to wild populations, we (1) estimated growth effects of low-level Cu exposures to juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), (2) related growth effects to reduced survival in downriver Chinook salmon migrations, (3) estimated population demographics, (4) constructed a demographically structured matrix population model, and (5) projected the influence of Cu-reduced growth on population size, extinction risks, and recovery chances. Reduced juvenile growth from Cu in the range of chronic criteria concentrations was projected to cause disproportionate reductions in survival of migrating juveniles, with a 7.5% length reduction predicting about a 23% to 52% reduction in survival from a headwaters trap to the next census point located 640 km downstream. Projecting reduced juvenile growth out through six generations (∼30 years) resulted in little increased extinction risk; however, population recovery times were delayed under scenarios where Cu-reduced growth was imposed.

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Merging Precaution with Sound Science under the Endangered Species Act

Abstract: BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Cited by 28 publications

References 19 publications

Precautionary discourse: Thinking through the distinction between the precautionary principle and the precautionary approach in theory and practice

Precautionary discourse: Thinking through the distinction between the precautionary principle and the precautionary approach in theory and practice

Identifying the demographic processes relevant for species conservation in human-impacted areas: does the model matter?

Extrapolating Growth Reductions in Fish to Changes in Population Extinction Risks: Copper and Chinook Salmon

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