Improved knowledge on the risk in ecologically important habitats on a regional scale from multiple stressors is critical for managing functioning and resilient ecosystems. This risk assessment aimed to identify seagrass ecosystems in southern Sweden that will be exposed to a high degree of change from multiple global change stressors in mid-and endof-century climate change conditions. Risk scores were calculated from the expected overlap of three stressors: sea surface temperature increases, ocean acidification and wind driven turbid conditions. Three high-risk regions were identified as areas likely to be exposed to a particularly high level of pressure from the global stressors by the end of the century. In these areas it can be expected that there will be a large degree of stressor change from the current conditions. Given the ecological importance of seagrass meadows for maintaining high biodiversity and a range of other ecosystem services, these risk zones should be given high priority for incorporation into management strategies, which can attempt to reduce controllable stressors in order to mitigate the consequences of some of the impending pressures and manage for maintained ecosystem resilience.
OPEN ACCESSCitation: Perry D, Hammar L, Linderholm HW, Gullström M (2020) Spatial risk assessment of global change impacts on Swedish seagrass ecosystems. PLoS ONE 15(1): e0225318. https:// http://esgdata.gfdl.noaa. gov/thredds/catalog/esgcet, and the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management (SwAM): Symphony -integrerat planeringsstöd för statlig havsplanering utifrån en ekosystemansats. 2018 (https://www.havochvatten.se/hav/uppdragkontakt/publikationer/publikationer/2018-04-10symphony-integrerat-planeringsstod-for-statlig-expected to move southward, up to hundreds of kilometers, which can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem functioning and species assemblages [7,8]. Shifts in seawater temperature and pH are also expected to have ecological consequences for the region. Research has even shown habitat-forming species, such as various macroalgae, and the regionally important blue mussel to be negatively influenced by the acidification [9,10], which can then cause cascading effects influencing many associated species. Resulting reductions in ecosystem resilience can make it more difficult for systems to recover from additional disturbance, as demonstrated by e.g. Eklöf et al. [11] in an experiment studying the effects of increased temperatures and ocean acidification on a simplified seagrass (Zostera marina L.) system. In fact, Z. marina, which has vanished on the Swedish west coast [12], has been shown to be unable to recover in areas where significant plant loss has in turn caused the resuspension of particulate matter into the water column, resulting in unfavorable conditions for the seagrass and, ultimately, a regime shift from seagrass meadows to unvegetated areas, even with restoration attempts [13].Resuspension of particulate matter in the water column, causing turbidity, can occur as a result...