Meeting Nationally Determined Contribution Targets: Projecting Kenya’s Motor Vehicle Emissions

Abstract

Kenya still uses a purely value-based motor vehicle taxation system. No environmentally focused fiscal policies exist for vehicle ownership and usage, yet up to a quarter of the country's carbon dioxide emissions originate from the transport and energy sectors. To achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) objectives for road transport, current vehicle taxes should be revised to reduce emissions through incentivizing newer and hybrid vehicle imports. The study projects Kenya's motor vehicle inventory using business-as-usual scenario building projections to determine the country's emissions and public revenue. The results conclude that vehicle age is directly proportional to the tax rate and therefore motor vehicle CO 2 emissions could be decreased significantly by amending the current tax policies to incentivize a shift in consumer car choice and help Kenya meet its NDC emissions reduction target for 2030.