Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method Map of Expected Earthquakes: Results and Prospects

Zavyalov, A. D.; Morozov, A. N.; Aleshin, I. M.; Иванов, С. Д.; Kholodkov, K. I.; Pavlenko, V. A.

doi:10.1134/s0001433822080072

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The current level of stresses in particular region of the globe can be estimated by indirect signs, e.g. by current seismic activity that is used by methods of mid-term earthquake forecast [34].…”

Section: Seismic Activity Before and After Strong Sfs Of X-classmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Interrelations of Space Weather and Seismic Activity: An Implication for Short-term Earthquake Prediction

Sorokin,

Novikov

2024

Preprint

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The statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Su-matra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (M>6) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

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Section: Seismic Activity Before and After Strong Sfs Of X-classmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Interrelations of Space Weather and Seismic Activity: An Implication for Short-term Earthquake Prediction

Sorokin,

Novikov

2024

Preprint

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“…Due to the lack of data, the lack of large volumes of data in solving geophysical problems, it does not allow the use of classical methods of statistical analysis. In particular, with the forecast of earthquakes, existing prognostic models are almost useless due to the lack of a large amount of data [22], therefore, great importance is attached to expert assessments, their proper choice, and the correct use of their rating.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Risks Using the Competence of Experts

Aliyev,

Gasitashvili,

Pkhovelishvili

et al. 2023

Proceeding of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference

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It is often impossible to build risk prediction models -since it is difficult to obtain and analyze large volumes of data in some subject areas statistics. Therefore, when calculating risks, specialists with high competence are often involved. It is also important to calculate the changes in their competence after each audit, which can lead to a change in the composition of the expert group. The expertise is based on the use of human experience and is carried out with the involvement of experts. It is of great importance both when predicting natural and technogenic disasters, and in the prevention of these disasters due to the maximum possible reduction in risks which is expressed in the calculation of the seismic resistance of buildings and structures. We have developed an expert selection system and subsequently an algorithm for calculating the competence of experts based on their expertise.

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Modified Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method: Map of Expected Earthquakes. Processing and Analyzing the Initial Data

Zavyalov,

Morozov,

Aleshin

et al. 2023

Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys.

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Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method Map of Expected Earthquakes: Results and Prospects

Cited by 5 publications

References 1 publication

Possible Interrelations of Space Weather and Seismic Activity: An Implication for Short-term Earthquake Prediction

Possible Interrelations of Space Weather and Seismic Activity: An Implication for Short-term Earthquake Prediction

Forecasting Risks Using the Competence of Experts

Modified Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method: Map of Expected Earthquakes. Processing and Analyzing the Initial Data

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