Mediterranean Precipitation Response to Greenhouse Gases and
Aerosols

Tang, Tao; Shindell, D. T.; Samset, B. H.; Boucher, Oliviér; Forster, Piers M.; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Gunnar; Sillmann, Jana; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Andrews, Timothy; Faluvegi, Gregory; Fläschner, Dagmar; Iversen, Trond; Kasoar, Matthew; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Kirkevåg, Alf; Lamarque, Jean‐François; Olivié, Dirk; Richardson, T.; Stjern, Camilla W.; Takemura, Toshihiko

doi:10.5194/acp-2018-56

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…Aerosols are known to have an important role in the regional and global climate system because they affect cloud properties, radiative balance and the hydrological cycle (Forster et al, 2007;Tang et al, 2018). They modify the radiative budget of the Earth through different effects, which are the direct, semi-direct and indirect effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model simulation of ammonium and nitrate aerosols distribution in the Euro-Mediterranean region and their radiative and climatic effects over 1979–2016

Drugé¹,

Nabat²,

Mallet³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Aerosols play an important role in Europe and the Mediterranean area where different sources of natural and anthropogenic particles are present. Among them ammonium and nitrate (A&N) aerosols may have a growing impact on regional climate. In this study, their representation in coarse and fine modes has been introduced in the prognostic aerosol scheme of the ALADIN-Climate regional model. This new aerosol scheme is evaluated over Europe and the Mediterranean Sea, using two twin simulations over the period 1979&#8211;2016 with and without A&N aerosols. This evaluation is performed at local and regional scales, using surface stations and satellite measurements. Despite an overestimate of the surface nitrate concentration, the model is able to reproduce its spatial pattern including local maxima (Benelux, Po valley). Concerning the simulated Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), the inclusion of A&N aerosols significantly reduces the model bias compared to both AERONET stations and satellite data. Our results indicate that A&N aerosols can contribute up to 40&#8201;% to the total AOD550 over Europe, with an average of 0.07 (550&#8201;nm) over the period 2001&#8211;2016. Sensitivity studies suggest that biases still present are related to uncertainties associated with the annual cycle of A&N aerosol precursors (ammonia and nitric acid). The decrease of sulphate aerosol production over Europe since 1980 produces more free ammonia in the atmosphere leading to an increase in A&N concentrations over the studied period. Analyses of the different aerosol trends have shown for the first time to our knowledge, that since 2005 over Europe, A&N AOD550 and A&N Shortwave (SW) Direct Radiative Forcing (DRF) are found to be higher than sulphate and organics, becoming the species with the highest AOD and the highest DRF. On average over the period 1979&#8211;2016, the A&N DRF is found to be about &#8722;1.7&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2 at the surface and &#8722;1.4&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2 at the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) in all-sky conditions over Europe, with regional maxima located at the surface over the Po valley (&#8722;5&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2). Finally, the dimming effect of A&N aerosols is responsible for a cooling of about &#8722;0.2&#8201;&#176;C over Europe (summer), with a maximum of &#8722;0.4&#8201;&#176;C over the Po valley. Concerning precipitations, no significant impact of A&N aerosols has been found.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model simulation of ammonium and nitrate aerosols distribution in the Euro-Mediterranean region and their radiative and climatic effects over 1979–2016

Drugé¹,

Nabat²,

Mallet³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Due to their optical and microphysical properties, atmospheric aerosols are known to have an essential role in the regional and global climate system. Indeed, they are able to modify the entire energy balance as well as cloud properties and the hydrological cycle (Forster et al, 2007;Tang et al, 2018). The Earth's radiative budget is modified by aerosol-radiation interactions (ari), which corresponds to what is usually referred to as the direct and semi-direct aerosol effects, and also by aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) that include what has earlier been referred to as the indirect aerosol effect (Boucher et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future evolution of aerosols and implications for climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean region

Drugé¹,

Nabat²,

Mallet³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. This study investigates, through regional climate modelling, the surface mass concentration and AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) evolution of the various (anthropogenic and natural) aerosols over the Euro-Mediterranean region between the end of the 20th century and the mid-21st century. The direct aerosol radiative forcing (DRF) as well as the future Euro-Mediterranean climate sensitivity to aerosols have been also analysed. Different regional climate simulations were carried out with the CNRM-ALADIN63 regional climate model, driven by the global CNRM-ESM2-1 Earth System Model (used in CMIP6) and coupled to the TACTIC (Tropospheric Aerosols for ClimaTe In CNRM) interactive aerosol scheme. These simulations follow several future scenarios called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-1.9, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), which have been chosen to analyse a wide range of possible future scenarios in terms of aerosol or particles precursors emissions. Between the historical and the future period, results show a total AOD decrease between 30 and 40 % over Europe for the three scenarios mainly due to the sulfate AOD decrease (between −85 and −93 %), that is partly offset by the nitrate and ammonium particles AOD increase (between +90 and +120 %). According to these three scenarios, nitrate aerosols become the largest contributor to the total AOD during the future period over Europe, with a contribution between 43.5 and 47.5 %. Concerning natural aerosols, their contribution to the total AOD increases slightly between the two periods. The different evolution of aerosols therefore impacts their DRF, with a significant sulfate DRF decrease by 2.6 W m−2 and a moderate nitrate and ammonium DRF increase by 1.4 W m−2, on average according to the three scenarios over Europe. These changes, which are similar under the different scenarios, explain about 65 % of the annual shortwave radiation change but also about 6 % (in annual average) of the warming expected over Europe by the middle of the century. This study shows, with the SSP 5-8.5, that the extra-warming attributable to the anthropogenic aerosols evolution over Central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula during the summer period is due to aerosol-radiation as well as aerosol-cloud interactions processes. The extra-warming of about 0.2 °C over Central Europe is explained by a surface radiation increase of 5.8 W m−2 over this region, due to both a surface aerosol DRF decrease of 4.4 W m−2 and cloud optical depth (COD) decrease of 1.3. In parallel, the simulated extra-warming of 0.2 °C observed over the Iberian Peninsula is due, as for it, to a COD decrease of 1.3 but also to an atmospheric dynamics change leading to a cloud cover decrease of about 2 % and a drier air in the lower layers, signature of the semi-direct forcing. This study thus highlights the necessity of taking into account the evolution of aerosols in future regional climate simulations.

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Mediterranean Precipitation Response to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Cited by 2 publications

References 37 publications

Model simulation of ammonium and nitrate aerosols distribution in the Euro-Mediterranean region and their radiative and climatic effects over 1979–2016

Model simulation of ammonium and nitrate aerosols distribution in the Euro-Mediterranean region and their radiative and climatic effects over 1979–2016

Future evolution of aerosols and implications for climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean region

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