Mediterranean Forecasting System: forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores

Tonani, Marina; Pinardi, Nadia; Fratianni, Claudia; Pistoia, Jenny; Dobričić, Srdjan; Pensieri, Sara; Alfonso, Marta de; Nittis, K.

doi:10.5194/os-5-649-2009

Cited by 77 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…All these are taken daily from MyOcean Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS; Tonani et al, 2009) and the model is forced with them for 24 h of model runtime. Every 24 h of model runtime, the simulation run was terminated and ocean models were hot started from their previous-step restart files.…”

Section: Pom: One-way Coupled System Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the ocean and atmosphere during an extreme bora event in northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling

et al. 2016

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Abstract.We have studied the performances of (a) a two-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmosphere model), as compared to the available in situ measurements during and after a strong Adriatic bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air-sea interactions. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) (4.4 km resolution) on the atmosphere side and an Adriatic setup of Princeton ocean model (POM) (1 • /30 × 1 • /30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere-ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. Two-way coupling ocean feedback to the atmosphere is limited to sea surface temperature. We have compared modeled atmosphere-ocean fluxes and sea temperatures from both setups to platform and CTD (conductivity, temperature, and depth) measurements from three locations in the northern Adriatic. We present objective verification of 2 m atmosphere temperature forecasts using mean bias and standard deviation of errors scores from 23 meteorological stations in the eastern part of Italy. We show that turbulent fluxes from both setups differ up to 20 % during the bora but not significantly before and after the event. When compared to observations, two-way coupling ocean temperatures exhibit a 4 times lower root mean square error (RMSE) than those from one-way coupled system. Two-way coupling improves sensible heat fluxes at all stations but does not improve latent heat loss. The spatial average of the two-way coupled atmosphere component is up to 0.3 • C colder than the one-way coupled setup, which is an improvement for prognostic lead times up to 20 h. Daily spatial average of the standard deviation of air temperature errors shows 0.15 • C improvement in the case of coupled system compared to the uncoupled. Coupled and uncoupled circulations in the northern Adriatic are predominantly wind-driven and show no significant mesoscale differences.

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Section: Pom: One-way Coupled System Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both setups were initialized on 6 November 2011, 00:00 UTC, with temperature, salinity, sea surface elevation and zonal and meridional velocity components of the MyOcean MFS (Tonani et al, 2009). …”

Section: Pom: One-way Coupled System Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the ocean and atmosphere during an extreme bora event in northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling

et al. 2016

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“…Daily outputs of temperature, salinity and velocities from the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) high resolution model are used as lateral boundary conditions. Data come from the implementation MFS1671 with a horizontal resolution of 1/16 • and 72 unevenly spaced vertical levels, based on the numerical code OPA8.1 (Tonani et al, 2008(Tonani et al, , 2009Pinardi and Coppini, 2010). The MFS1671 fields are used for fluxes directed into our domain while the model computes the outward fluxes.…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors controlling interannual variability of vertical organic matter export and phytoplankton bloom dynamics – a numerical case-study for the NW Mediterranean Sea

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Mid-latitude spring blooms of phytoplankton show considerable year-to-year variability in timing, spatial extent and intensity. It is still unclear to what degree the bloom variability is connected to the magnitude of the vertical flux of organic matter. A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model is used to relate interannual variability in phytoplankton spring-bloom dynamics to variability in the vertical export of organic matter in the NW Mediterranean Sea. Simulation results from 2001 to 2010, validated against remote-sensing chlorophyll, show marked interannual variability in both timing and shape of the bloom. Model results show a tendency for the bloom to start later after cold and windy winters. However, the onset of the bloom occurs often when the mixed layer is still several hundred metres deep while the heat flux is already approaching zero and turbulent mixing is low. Frequency and intensity of wind episodes control both the timing and development of the bloom and the consequent export flux of organic matter. The wintertime flux is greater than zero and shows relatively low interannual variability. The magnitude of the interannual variability is mainly determined in March when the frequency of windy days positively correlates with the export flux. Frequent wind-driven mixing episodes act to increase the export flux and, at the same time, to interrupt the bloom. Perhaps counterintuitively, our analysis shows that years with discontinuous, low-chlorophyll blooms are likely to have higher export flux than years with intense uninterrupted blooms. The NW Mediterranean shows strong analogy with the North Atlantic section within the same latitude range. Hence, our results may also be applicable to this quantitatively more important area of the world ocean.

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“…The numerical ocean model has a resolution of 1/16° × 1/16° on the horizontal and 72 unevenly spaced vertical levels [16]. The system produces daily ten-day ocean forecasts and ocean analyses using a daily assimilation cycle [19,20] where a different optimally interpolated SST from satellites [21] is used to constrain the model surface temperature.…”

Section: Cosmo and Mfsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature on COSMO Forecasts of a Medicane over the Western Mediterranean Sea

Romaniello¹,

Oddo²,

Tonani³

et al. 2015

JEASE

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Abstract:The paper describes and analyzes the sensitivity of an operational atmospheric model to different SST (sea surface temperature) estimates. The model's sensitivity has been analyzed in a Medicane (Mediterranean hurricane) test case. Numerical simulations have been performed using the COSMO (consortium for small-scale modeling) atmospheric model, in the COSMO-ME configuration. The model results show that the model is capable of capturing the position, timing and intensity of the cyclone. Sensitivity experiments have been carried out using different SSTs surface boundary conditions for the COSMO forecasts. Four different experiments have been carried out: the first two using SST fields obtained from the OSTIA (operational sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis) system, while the other two using the SST analyses and forecasts from MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting System, Tonani et al., 2015;Pinardi and Coppini, 2010). The different boundary conditions determine differences in the trajectory, pressure minimum and wind intensity of the simulated Medicane. The sensitivity experiments showed that a colder than real SST field determines a weakening of the minimum pressure at the vortex center. MFS SST analyses and forecasts allow the COSMO model to simulate more realistic minimum pressure values, trajectories and wind speeds. It was found that MFS SST forecast, as surface boundary conditions for COSMO-ME runs, determines a significant improvement, compared to ASCAT observations, in terms of wind intensity forecast as well as cyclone dimension and location.

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Mediterranean Forecasting System: forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores

Abstract: Abstract. This paper describes the first evaluation of the quality of the forecast and analyses produced at the basin scale by the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System (MFS)

Cited by 77 publications

References 28 publications

Modeling the ocean and atmosphere during an extreme bora event in northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling

Modeling the ocean and atmosphere during an extreme bora event in northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling

Factors controlling interannual variability of vertical organic matter export and phytoplankton bloom dynamics – a numerical case-study for the NW Mediterranean Sea

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature on COSMO Forecasts of a Medicane over the Western Mediterranean Sea

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