Media Discontinuance: Modeling the Diffusion “S” Curve to Declines in Media Use

Abstract

The cumulative growth in innovations such as new media has been modeled with Scurves. However, the Scurve model has not been applied to mature innovations that have reached their peak of diffusion and begun to decline. This study explores the potential extension of the use of the S-curve to model decays in the availability or usage of traditional media. Using annual data from declines in telegrams, afternoon newspapers, vinyl records, outdoor movie theaters, and VHS tapes, this study finds that declines in incumbent media often follow a dramatic downward path that is more abrupt than that of media undergoing growth. Implications for media management and theory are discussed. Keywords Department of Statistics

Trends in U.S. Adolescents’ media use, 1976–2016: The rise of digital media, the decline of TV, and the (near) demise of print.

“…For example, printed books or magazines that previously fulfilled entertainment functions may be displaced by online sites and games. In contrast, the media-based explanation is that digital media are richer or more adaptive than legacy media and are adopted as a normal process of innovation diffusion adoption decisions, in which the newer media fulfill existing affordances better and more enjoyably than older media (Newell et al, 2014). Digital media offer advantages over legacy media across a spectrum of uses and gratifications; for example, they are often on-demand, frequently updated, and/or portable.…”

“…In recent years, adolescents have engaged more and more with technology, spending hours online, on social media, texting, and gaming on electronic devices including smartphones and tablets (Lauricella, Cingel, Blackwell, Wartella, & Conway, 2014; Perrin, 2015; Rideout et al, 2010), activities that we define as “digital media.” As generations become more digitally native, their comfort level with (Van Volkom, Stapley, & Malter, 2013) and use of (Taipale, 2016; van den Berg, Arentze, & Timmermans, 2012) digital media increase relative to that of previous generations. However, data on the amount of time teens and young adults spend in these pursuits are thin, often based on small samples (Hanson et al, 2010; Janusik & Wolvin, 2009; Kayany & Yelsma, 2000; Lauricella et al, 2014), over relatively brief time-spans (Hall, Kearney, & Xing, 2018), collected primarily for market research (GfK, 2014; JWT, 2012; Newell, Genschel, & Zhang, 2014), on only one type of media (Lenhart et al, 2015; Twenge & Park, 2018), or not updated every year (Common Sense Media, 2015), leading to outdated information (Rideout et al, 2010). Moreover, few studies track media use over the years among the same age-group using the same questions.…”

Determinants of content marketing effectiveness: Conceptual framework and empirical findings from a managerial perspective

“…The displacement model assumes increases in new media use will go along with declines in the use of established media (e.g. due to functional advantages of new media or limited time budgets [ 44 , 45 ]). The complementary model hypothesizes new media usage has no or even a positive effect on established media use within a content domain, as people “interested in procuring information in a particular content area expose themselves to a multitude of media outlets to optimize the information on that particular content area” [ 46 ].…”

Effects of a Magazine’s Move to Online-only: Post-print Audience Attention and Readership Retention Revisited

“…The usage of some media-such as the telegram or CB radios-has, clearly, been displaced by newer forms, leading to their almost total discontinuance (see, e.g., Newell, Genschel, and Zhang 2014). Other media have been subject to partial displacement.…”

“…Media displacement effects are, however, rather unpredictable, and the total discontinuance of a medium is rare. For example, although there was a 99% decline in the shipments of vinyl LPs between their peak in 1977 and 2008 (Newell, Genschel, and Zhang 2014), since then the format has been making a comeback. More vinyl LPs were sold in 2017 than in any year since the early 1990s (Crutchley 2018).…”