Media Coverage of the Economy and Aggregate Economic Evaluations: Uncovering Evidence of Indirect Media Effects

Abstract

In the following analysis, we investigate two important questions: (1) how closely does media coverage of the economy reflect real changes in eco nomic conditions? and (2) to what extent does economic coverage of the economy exert an independent effect on economic evaluations? We then use this information to explore Republican claims that media coverage of the economy hurt the Bush reelection campaign. Consistent with previous research, we find that, overall, the media tend to follow negative economic conditions more closely than positive economic conditions. In addition, news coverage appears to be strongly related to aggregate public evaluations of the economy, even after controlling for real economic conditions. Final ly, we also find that news coverage of the economy was significantly differ ent during 1982, 1991, and 1992 than during other years under study. During these years, coverage of the economy was more negative than would have been expected on the basis of economic conditions alone. The implications of these findings, particularly with respect to Republican claims of media bias, are explored.

Covering the crisis: Media coverage of the economic crisis and citizens’ economic expectations

“…Although this study was conducted in a unique economic context, the dynamics bear relevance beyond the economic crisis under investigation. 2 Several studies have been carried out on the relationship between the real, objective economy and its portrayal in the news (Goidel and Langley, 1995;Nadeau et al, 2000). However, we refrain from discussing these studies here, and only note that there is little evidence for a one-on-one real and unbiased reflection of the state of the economy in the news.…”

“…In his time-series study, Mosley (1984) finds media estimates of the economic situation to be a far better predictor of economic assessments than official economic indicators. Relying on a similar design, Sanders et al (1993) and Goidel and Langley (1995) find the tone of economic news coverage to be affecting public assessments, in addition to the impact of real-world factors, in the United Kingdom and United States, respectively. The latter, however, show that only negative news coverage affects public evaluations, which is in line with Soroka's (2006) more recent analysis (see also Ju, 2008).…”

What Follows What? Relations between Economic Indicators, Economic Expectations of the Public, and News on the General Economy and Unemployment in Germany, 2002-2011

“…NV concerning the general economy was clearly forecast by public expectations for the economy during the 2008/9 recession. Hence, general economic NV did not respond in a "fire alarm" fashion to warn the public, 82 but public opinion did herald increased NV. The increase of news on the general economy leads to a decrease in the unemployment NV.…”

Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections

“…This is a challenging assumption for several reasons. Initial estimates of economic figures often vary widely from actual figures (see above), the media might not always accurately inform the public about the state of the economy (Goidel and Langley, 1995;Hetherington, 1996), and most people are badly informed about economic conditions (Holbrook and Garand, 1996).…”