Mechanistic Criminology

Are Most Published Criminological Research Findings Wrong? Taking Stock of Criminological Research Using a Bayesian Simulation Approach

“…Social control theory (Hirschi, [1969(Hirschi, [ ] 2002, for example, eschews scientific determinism in favor of the assumptions of classical criminology, such as those of (Hobbes, 2015) that hold individuals are innately hedonistic and rational. As Proctor and Niemeyer (2019) note, these assumptions violate core assumptions of scientific fields, such as the ex-nihilo-nihil-fit principle that holds phenomenon must come from somewhere and cannot vanish into nothingness. Within essentialist frameworks, assumptions of human nature-such as those in social control theory-have no origins in reality.…”

“…While such issues certainly are important, we contend theory serves as the most significant source of falsepositive research findings in the field. In other words: Theoretical shortcomings that have plagued criminology for decades represent the field's current largest obstacle in producing valid scientific research findings (Proctor & Niemeyer, 2019;Wikström & Kroneberg, 2022).…”

“…Given the previously identified connection between theoretical rigor and R, there is sufficient reason to believe the ratio of true relationships to no relationships among hypotheses in criminology is exceedingly low. This should come as little surprise as criminologists have continuously raised various concerns related to the validity of key theories over the years (Bernard, 1990;Gibbs, 1985;Proctor & Niemeyer, 2019;Tittle, 1985). While the list of criticisms aimed at criminological theories is exceptionally long, we believe two criticisms are most relevant for the purposes of determining probable values of R: (1) criminological theories are rarely falsified; and (2) criminological theories are fragmented into various schools of thought, not all of which are scientific.…”

“…Numerous criminologists have observed that the traditional Popperian model of scientific progress has failed in criminology (Bernard, 1990;Bernard & Snipes, 1996;Dooley & Goodison, 2019;Elliot, 1985;Proctor & Niemeyer, 2019;Robinson & Beaver, 2020;Walsh, 2002). Elliot (1985), for example, advocates for theory development through theory integration over theory competition and falsification precisely because he sees theory falsification as having failed in criminology.…”

“…As noted by Proctor and Niemeyer (2019), scientific fields possess certain philosophical assumptions and practices that separate them from other epistemic fields. Inherent to these assumptions is a specific model of knowledge production which is aimed at the reliable prediction, explanation, and control of natural phenomena.…”