Mechanisms of Regional Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic

Dörr, Jakob; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Madonna, Erica

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0149.1

Cited by 36 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…The sea surface heat flux anomalies in Fig. 5A roughly depict the pathways of Atlantic and Pacific water inflows, which manifests that the Arctic Atlantification and Pacification will be strengthened in the future warming climate and have an increasing impact on Arctic sea ice decline ( 33 , 45 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

et al. 2022

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Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ice, atmosphere, and the global ocean, but it is less well understood. Here, we show that the upper 2000 m of the Arctic Ocean warms at 2.3 times the global mean rate within this depth range averaged over the 21st century in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario. We call this phenomenon the “Arctic Ocean Amplification.” The amplified Arctic Ocean warming can be attributed to a substantial increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which will continue outweighing sea surface heat loss in the future. Arctic Amplification of both the atmosphere and ocean indicates that the Arctic as a whole is one of Earth’s regions most susceptible to climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

et al. 2022

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“…SIC changes are generally less pronounced in the Kara Sea, indicating that cyclones are not an important source of SIC variability in this part of the Arctic Ocean. This is understandable because winter SIC is generally higher in the Kara Sea than in the Barents and Greenland Seas (e.g., Dörr et al, 2021), making the ice cover less susceptible to the impact of cyclones, in addition to the constraint by the Novaya Zemlya island and the coast. Figure 1a further shows that generally the SIC reduction prior and during the cyclone covers only 2 days, while the change in SIC after the cyclone passage persists longer.…”

Section: Effects Of Different Time Scales and Regionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Insights Into Cyclone Impacts on Sea Ice in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean in Winter

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Vihma

Uotila

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Cyclones are important drivers of heat and moisture transport from lower latitudes into the polar regions; they account for nearly three-quarters of the average annual moisture transport into the Arctic (Fearon et al., 2021). The direct thermodynamic impacts of intrusions of warm and moist air in winter are increased downward fluxes of longwave radiation and sensible heat at the snow/ice surface, accompanied by a reduction in sea ice concentration (SIC) (Woods & Caballero, 2016). It has been shown that anomalous warming and moistening triggered by extreme cyclone events can result in near-melting conditions in winter in the Arctic, turn the normally negative surface energy budget (SEB) into a positive one, and thus promote ice melt or reduced ice growth (Boisvert et al., 2016;Moore, 2016;Rinke et al., 2017). But cyclone impacts on Arctic sea ice in winter are not limited to thermodynamics. Cyclone-related wind anomalies lead to a shift of the ice edge position and thus locally reduce or increase the sea ice extent dynamically (Boisvert et al., 2016;Schreiber & Serreze, 2020). Furthermore, ice deformation during storms can promote ice drift divergence and subsequent lead formation and new ice growth as well as ice drift convergence, closing of leads, and formation of pressure ridges (Itkin et al., 2017).Due to these various dynamic and thermodynamic impacts, cyclones are an important driver of Arctic sea ice variability, which plays a key role in the Arctic climate system. Apart from that, the ice edge position and the local SIC are important factors for the marine ecosystem and short-term predictions of both are also crucial for navigation in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas. With the climate warming and associated reductions in sea ice thickness and concentration (IPCC, 2021), Arctic navigation is hereby expected to increase in the future (Cao et al., 2022). All this makes it important to understand the impact of cyclones on sea ice. Thereby, the focus of

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“…Since the middle of the 2000s, the region has experienced years of extreme ocean heat content on top of the warming trends, with up to 6 x standard deviations above the long‐term 1970–1999 average (Lind et al, 2018). Moreover, recent and future gradual expansion of Atlantic water inflow is a major driver of interannual variability in sea ice in the Barents Sea (Dörr et al, 2021; Sandø et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large‐scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic

Husson

Lind

Fossheim

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record-breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community-level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short-term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co-occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long-term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial-temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change.

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Mechanisms of Regional Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic

Cited by 36 publications

References 97 publications

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

New Insights Into Cyclone Impacts on Sea Ice in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean in Winter

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large‐scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic

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