Measuring the Value of Softwood Log Exports: Evidence from Oregon

Abstract

Oregon softwood log exports experienced a resurgence during years after the Great Recession. Using an empirically grounded partial equilibrium model, the purpose of this study is to assess the net effects of log exports on total economic surplus by measuring the effects of a hypothetical absence of export markets from 2010:Q1 to 2015:Q4. Based on our modeling results, the net economic losses would have amounted to $248 million during the study period in total. Oregon mills would have gained $1.66 billion in total, whereas landowners would have lost $1.91 billion in total had there not been export markets. Furthermore, additional losses would have occurred from the forgone export premium. Our modeling results suggest that harvests would have been 1.97 billion board feet lower in the absence of export markets. However, Oregon mills would have used an additional 3.0 billion board feet. We also provide estimates for potential employment effects. Study Implications The purpose of our study is to compute how much Oregon mills would have gained from the absence of export competition during the six years after the Great Recession and how much landowners would have lost if they did not have the opportunity to export softwood logs. We also assess how many additional jobs domestic mills would have sustained and how many jobs would have disappeared from logging and transportation activities if exports were absent. Our results inform policymakers and stakeholders about the net benefits of softwood log exports in Oregon, as well as about the distributional consequences of exports.