Measuring the Impact of Financial Flows on Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Brazil After the 2008 Crisis

Abstract

The effects of changes in foreign portfolio investment flows on Brazilian GDP and investment during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 are evaluated through correlation coefficients, impulse-response functions, and out of sample forecasts. Impulse-response functions results show a positive relation between financial flows and GDP and investment, for both fixed income and equity flows. There is a change in the relationship between flows and changes in GDP and investment form the fourth quarter of 2008. The changes in the relationship between flows and the real variables show up with a shorter lag when the crisis period is included in the estimations. This change is confirmed by the poor out of sample forecasts from a VAR estimated with pre-crisis data. This means that unobservable variables are affecting GDP, investment, and financial flows during the crisis, despite the macroeconomic conditions of the country. The reduced vulnerability of the Brazilian economy consequently lessened the effect of the crisis when compared with previous crisis episodes.