Measuring the impact of climate change on agriculture in Vietnam: A panel Ricardian analysis

Abstract

This article investigates the economic impacts of changes in climatic conditions on Vietnamese agriculture. We apply the two‐step Hsiao method to a 10‐year panel of household data which focuses on the production of 20 crops across seven regions in Vietnam. This study allows for variable market feedbacks across regions that grow different selections of crops. In this way, our article differs from most panel Ricardian analyses which assume uniform market shocks on households. Our analysis also includes climate interactions to allow the effects of temperatures to be dependent on the levels of rainfall. Panel evidence from the Ricardian model suggests heterogeneous climate impacts across seasons and regions. Rising seasonal temperatures are associated with losses to most regions, with spring temperatures being the exception. Increases in summer precipitation are valuable to mitigate the negative effects of rising temperatures. Changes in climate normal should not be the focus of policymakers since the simulation indicates marginal losses to agricultural productivity, both in the short term and the long term. Regions with cool climates are likely to be most affected by the projected climate change.

How to Cope with the Challenges of Environmental Stresses in the Era of Global Climate Change: An Update on ROS Stave off in Plants

“…Whereas the extreme temperatures and rainfall negatively affected agricultural productivity in the long run. In addition, climate change has also impacted the agriculture productivity in the United States (California), Vietnam, Morocco, India, and sub-Saharan Africa [12][13][14][15][16][17].…”

Natural disasters and household welfare: A case study of rural Vietnam

“…The relationship between natural disasters and household welfare (income and expenditure) has attracted the attention of numerous researchers such as Arouri et al (2015); Baez and Santos (2008); Bui et al (2014); Dercon et al (2005); Mottaleb et al (2013);and Thomas et al (2010), and the more recent papers, such as Nguyen and Scrimgeour (2022); Pipitpukdee, et al (2020); Skoufias et al (2020);and Verschuur et al (2020). Most studies found the evidence that disasters reduce household incomes.…”

“…The well-being of a half-million farmers in Thailand plus actors in the global supply chain of cassava will be vulnerable to climate change. Similarly, Nguyen and Scrimgeour (2022) investigated the economic impacts of changes in climatic conditions on Vietnam agriculture by using two-step Hsiao method. The results indicated that the temperature increase in winter, summer, and autumn are harmful to agriculture, while the opposite is true for spring temperatures.…”

The Prospects of gene introgression from crop wild relatives into cultivated lentil for climate change mitigation

“…The inconsistent precipitation, water deficit, extreme temperatures and sodicity have been among the most devastating stresses that have caused enormous reduction in crop productivity ( Rajpal et al., 2019a ; Rajpal et al., 2019b ; Zeroual et al, 2023 ). Many modelling studies conducted in multiple countries and agro-climatic zones have predicted large-scale reduction in agricultural productivity, habitat loss, distribution, range shifts and even extinction of species coupled with climate change ( Bellard et al., 2012 ; Iizumi et al., 2018 ; Gupta and Mishra, 2019 ; Román-Palacios and Wiens, 2020 ; Zilli et al., 2020 ; Kadiyala et al., 2021 ; Lychuk et al., 2021 ; Affoh et al., 2022 ; Ait-El-Mokhtar et al., 2022 ; Gordeev et al., 2022 ; Nguyen and Scrimgeour, 2022 ; Ntiamoah et al., 2022 ) and the risks being exacerbated in species with narrow distribution range and/or genetic base ( Dubos et al., 2022 ; Galushko and Gamtessa, 2022 ). Besides mitigating commercial cultivars to adapt to the changing climates, there is a pressing need to enhance crop productivity to feed the world’s ever-growing population which is expected to reach 9 billion by the year 2050.…”